Rubio’s visit to Yerevan was about supporting Armenia’s leadership: Georgy Asatryan

Georgy Asatryan, deputy director of the Center of the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at HSE University, commented to Alpha News on the US-Iran negotiations over the situation in the Middle East, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Yerevan, and the visits of the Russian and US presidents to China.

“Those who were expecting a US-Iran agreement were mistaken. Every time positions have drawn closer, it has ended in war. There is no compromise on the nuclear programme: the Americans demand it be dismantled, while Iran categorically refuses. There is also no agreement on the regional balance of power, abandoning support for proxy groups is impossible for Tehran. In theory, a compromise could be reached behind closed doors on a confidential basis, but neither side is ready for that yet,” Asatryan said.

According to the expert, the war in the Middle East is one of the most unpopular wars in American history.

“The Trump administration is extremely limited in its options. This is one of the most unpopular wars in US history, even more unpopular than the 2003 Iraq campaign. Back then there was an emotional backdrop following September 11, whereas now there was no pretext whatsoever. Trump does not want a new escalation, but his approval ratings are falling to historic lows: around 30%. His party and electorate are divided, and a difficult search for compromises is underway. But I am certain they will not be found: the negotiators on the American side are unprofessional, and pressure from elite groups and regional allies, including the UAE, is only intensifying,” Asatryan said.

In the political analyst’s view, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s visit to Armenia was aimed at supporting Armenia’s ruling leadership.

“As far as I understand, it was not really a full visit, Rubio did not even leave the airport. So it is hard to call it a visit at all. Nothing fundamentally new was signed. The strategic partnership between the US and Armenia has existed for a long time. But one needs to understand: this is a Trump project in its purest form. And Trump is currently facing serious problems inside America,” Asatryan noted.

The expert expressed doubt about the viability of the Trump Route project (TRIPP) due to Iran’s position.

“This project will not survive, because there is a position here, first and foremost, of Iran, of the Iranian side. We can see how actively and boldly Iran’s political and military leadership opposes any regional projects and any regional players that pursue pro-Western policies or attempt to advance the interests of extra-regional powers. One need only look at how Iran has struck military bases and infrastructure facilities of the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf. So I see no prospects here whatsoever,” Asatryan stated.

Speaking about whether the next US administration would continue the Trump Route project, the expert said the project is under threat.

“I doubt that the next American administration will continue a project with the word ‘Trump’ in its name. If Democrats call Trump an authoritarian tyrant, a dictator, and so on, it is obvious they will not be continuing his political projects. Right now, if polling is to be believed, the Republicans risk losing the midterm elections and the House of Representatives. And that will seriously curtail Trump’s options in foreign policy,” Asatryan concluded.