Beniamin Matevosyan: panic in government over economic restrictions from Moscow?

> Alpha Julieta: Beniamin Matevosyan: panic in government over economic restrictions from Moscow?

(CC has no strategy for solving the problems)

The political course of Armenia’s incumbent government, led by Nikol Pashinyan and the Civil Contract party, aimed at accelerated rapprochement with the European Union (but in reality, under the cover of loud talk about the EU, oriented toward integration into the Turkic world and falling into complete economic dependence on Baku and Ankara) has run into its first serious economic consequences, for which the country’s leadership was wholly unprepared. Russia’s and the EAEU partners’ response to Yerevan’s geopolitical pivot has taken the form of the gradual introduction of harsh restrictive measures and trade barriers, which are already threatening key sectors of the Armenian economy. Instead of a systematic risk analysis and a well-calibrated crisis management program, the public is witnessing chaotic, mutually contradictory, and frankly panicked statements from officials. The government is trying to mask the absence of a real strategy for saving the economy with loud political slogans, but the depth of the disagreements within the ruling team itself betrays their complete bewilderment in the face of the mounting crisis.

Evidence of this administrative deadlock has come in the form of attempts by senior leadership to reassure businesses and the public with promises of imminent solutions. Commenting on the economic pressure, Pashinyan attempted to shift attention to a specific date, stating: “We will fully compensate for all losses incurred, all accumulated problems and contentious issues will be resolved after June 7.” He is echoed by Gevorg Papoyan, minister of economy, who also ties the stabilization of the situation to that date, stressing that “everything will sort itself out after June 7, we are already actively seeking new markets for Armenia, and in parallel the government is preparing special programs to compensate businesses for their losses.”

However, Papoyan immediately shifts the discussion from the pragmatic to the emotionally patriotic, declaring: “We will not surrender our sovereignty for tomatoes.” This obvious conflation of economic promises with political rhetoric clearly demonstrates that the relevant ministry has no concrete calculations or understanding of how exactly to compensate losses in the real sector of the economy.
Against the backdrop of the government’s restrained attempts to save face, members of the legislative branch from the ruling party allow themselves far more irresponsible statements that only further disorient the public. Thus, Gagik Melkonyan, a deputy from the Civil Contract faction, openly demonstrated his contempt for the fate of domestic producers by bluntly declaring: “I don’t care if they ban Armenian products from entering Russia.” Such a cynical position on the part of a lawmaker completely undercuts the promises made by Pashinyan and Papoyan about supporting businesses, and indicates that within the ruling elite the fate of thousands of farmers and exporters is not considered a priority. At the same time, Khachatur Sukiasyan, another major businessman and Civil Contract deputy, attempted to minimize public panic and casually asserted that an alternative to Russian energy resources had already been found: “There is gas that is cheaper, it will be supplied to us.” These words look like wishful thinking, since there are currently no legal or infrastructural grounds for a rapid switch to a gas supplier at lower prices.

This range of statements, from promises of total compensation to outright indifference toward the loss of markets, proves that the Pashinyan team first created a colossal problem and now has not the faintest coherent plan to overcome it. Promises to urgently find new countries to sell Armenian goods to, in conditions where traditional logistics chains are tied to the Eurasian space, look utopian. Neither European nor Middle Eastern markets are capable of overnight absorbing the volumes of agricultural and industrial output that Armenia has supplied to Russia for years. Certification standards, fierce competition, and logistics costs make a rapid reorientation of exports an impossible task for the current cabinet.

The situation is compounded by the fact that the current restrictions are only the beginning. If Moscow decides to impose a full ban on supplies to Armenia and bank transfers, or revises energy tariffs, the Armenian economy faces a large-scale shock. Civil Contract’s lack of a long-term diversification strategy means only one thing: if the incumbent government remains at the helm, the entire mass of problems it has created, in the form of rapid impoverishment, unemployment, and business closures, will fall squarely on the heads of ordinary citizens of the Republic of Armenia, who will be left to pay for the geopolitical miscalculations of their leadership.

Think about that…