If Pashinyan remains in power, an economic crisis will emerge in relations with Russia: Artur Atayev

Artur Atayev, a political scientist, commented to Alpha News on the words of Alexey Overchuk, deputy prime minister of the Russian Federation, that European aid to Armenia would be insufficient to cover the losses from possible economic restrictions on the part of Russia.

“The statement by Overchuk, deputy prime minister of the Russian government, is a measured and clear position based on the outcomes of the summit that already took place in Almaty, on the negotiation process that has already been conducted, and, most importantly, on economic analysis. The figure in question is $6.4 billion, that is the volume of economic cooperation between Russia and Armenia. In this regard, his words about the proposed European Union aid of €50 million, which for now is more of a declaratory nature, do indeed reflect reality: it is a drop in the ocean. Overchuk is analyzing the situation at the level of macroeconomic indicators, so such an assessment from a key government member responsible for Eurasian integration is entirely to be expected,” Atayev said.

In the expert’s view, if Pashinyan retains power, relations with Russia will develop along one of two scenarios, both of which involve further distancing from Moscow.

“If Pashinyan remains in power, an economic crisis will emerge in the relationship. Economic cooperation will not develop, and its growth will cease. Most likely, two scenarios are possible. The first is a full economic embargo, since the level of negative political statements can no longer remain purely political and will inevitably spill over into the economic sphere.

The second scenario is more favorable, which is a gradual reduction in economic cooperation that will lead to the closure of joint political projects. This process has effectively already begun, but going forward it may also affect military and political cooperation, specifically, the cessation of the guarding of the Armenian-Iranian border by units of Russia’s FSB and, accordingly, the withdrawal of the Russian military base,” the Alpha News interlocutor concluded.