A positive scenario on the Israeli-Lebanese track should not be expected for now: Elena Grebennikova

Elena Grebennikova, political scientist and member of the Digoria Expert Club, commented to Alpha News on the framework agreement between Lebanon and Israel.

“It should first be noted that the agreement to halt hostilities between Israel and Lebanon is one of the points of the memorandum between Washington and Tehran, and accordingly should be viewed, among other things, in the context of the overall situation in the Middle East. In principle, the agreement between Israel and Lebanon should serve as the basis for ending hostilities. However, under its terms, the disarmament of Hezbollah must happen first, followed only afterward by the withdrawal of the Israeli army from southern Lebanon, which, as things stand today, appears virtually impossible,” the expert noted.

According to the political scientist, Lebanon’s army is unlikely to take any serious action, even with the support of the United States.

“The fact is that Hezbollah will not disarm voluntarily. Moreover, the organization plans to continue fighting. Attempts by the Lebanese army to resolve this issue by force, if it even comes to that, could lead to civil war. Although I very much doubt the Lebanese army would decide to take any serious steps, even despite US support, including financial support. Overall, given the internal political contradictions in Lebanon, as well as the fragility of the truce between Tehran and Washington, I don’t think there’s any reason at present to expect a positive scenario on the Israeli-Lebanese track,” Grebennikova said.