Leaving the EAEU will cost Armenia economic ties built over decades: Maxim Vaskov

Maxim Vaskov, a political analyst, commented to Alpha News on the EAEU countries’ report on the consequences of Armenia’s withdrawal from the organization and the Armenian authorities’ reaction to it. According to the expert, the EAEU report is meant to warn Armenia against severing ties built over decades and losing its economic advantages.

“I believe the EAEU countries simply wanted to make this information known, so that no one could later say they did not know or did not foresee the consequences of what will actually happen if Armenia leaves: the severing of ties built over decades and of the investments the EAEU countries made in Armenia’s development. It is clear that it will be impossible to preserve the conditions favorable to the Armenian economy. The situation that developed with Ukraine in late 2013 and early 2014 will repeat itself here. When Yanukovych clearly raised the question of whether it was possible to keep integration projects with Russia while also being with the EU, Vladimir Putin explained clearly that no, that would not be possible, and a choice would have to be made,” Vaskov said.

In the political analyst’s view, Pashinyan predictably portrays the EAEU’s warnings about economic consequences as pressure and a threat to destabilize Armenia.

“I think Pashinyan’s response that this is about destabilizing the situation in Armenia is entirely predictable. He regularly responds with exactly this wording. This is not an attempt to destabilize the situation, but an attempt to explain the real cost of severing relations for Armenia. Meanwhile, the view is growing stronger inside the country that Armenia is once again being threatened because of the choice it will make in favor of European integration,” Vaskov said.

According to the expert, leaving the EAEU could lead to a large-scale revision of Armenia’s economic agreements within the EAEU.

“The rift will run through literally every aspect of the interaction that has existed for decades, since the emergence of independent Russia and the independent state of the Republic of Armenia. Severing relations is not only about gas prices. Clearly, they will be brought in line with the general standard. Clearly, in this situation, all the agreements concluded on the basis of Armenia’s EAEU membership will be cancelled: export-import agreements and the market volumes provided for Armenian goods. As for what the EU is actually prepared to offer, we know that the strictest quotas apply to goods supplied to Europe. Plans for massive investment and the development of IT and all related areas also raise big questions. There are competing, already established hubs with logistics, reputations, clients and lines of business that will not welcome any new hub capable of pushing them aside,” Vaskov concluded.