Armenian-Russian relations are at a turning point and in a state of uncertainty: Alexander Krylov

Alexander Krylov, chief research fellow at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), commented to Alpha News at the XII International Scientific and Expert Forum “Primakov Readings” on the direction of Armenian-Russian relations.

According to the expert, Armenian-Russian relations are at yet another turning point and in a state of uncertainty.

“It is unclear how the elections will affect things. Three scenarios are most likely. The optimistic scenario is that relations will remain in the same state as before the elections, that is, Armenia will continue to draw politically closer to Europe while enjoying all the economic privileges of an Eurasian Economic Union member. The second scenario is that Russia will react to these elections and will no longer tolerate the situation that has developed. In that case, some restrictive measures against Armenia will apparently be taken, though we can already see that some of them are being implemented. The third scenario, the most negative one, is an effective rupture of our relations, if not diplomatic, then practical, along the lines of Moldova. That is, a rollback not only of political ties but of economic ones as well, with Armenia joining the economic blockade and economic sanctions imposed on Russia by its adversaries on the international stage. In that case, Armenia would already be perceived as an integral part of the anti-Russia camp that exists today on the international stage and with which we are in a state of acute confrontation, including in Ukraine,” Krylov said.

“We see Ukraine, we see Moldova. The economic benefits of ties with Russia played no role when the political choice was made in favor of Russia’s adversaries on the international stage. In such cases, economic and social interests take a back seat,” Krylov emphasized.

In the political scientist’s view, the path to Europe for Armenia simultaneously means drawing closer to Turkey.

“Turkey as a NATO member, and the European Union, and the United States will develop relations with Armenia. The question is how beneficial this will be for Armenia itself. It is clear that for the political elite this may be very advantageous. But as we can see from the experience of other countries, the population often finds itself in a very difficult position. If the population elects such a government, it thereby consents to the socioeconomic situation being placed at serious risk,” Krylov concluded.