A rupture in Russian-Armenian relations would hit the Armenian economy harder: Danila Gureev

Danila Gureev, a political scientist and economist, commented to Alpha News on the tensions in Armenian-Russian relations and analyzed which side would suffer more in the event of Russian restrictions being imposed.

“Let us be frank: when we talk about geopolitics, there are several forms of interaction between states. The first is what is known as hard power is direct use of force, up to and including military conflict. But in political science there is also the concept of ‘soft power.’ It refers to political pressure and the advancement of one country’s interests in relation to another through non-forceful means.

When we talk about soft power, there are quite a few instruments available: cultural engagement, humanitarian ties. However, the economy remains the key element. What is unfortunately happening between Russia and Armenia right now is a vivid example of precisely this instrument being used.

The Russian Federation is demonstrating what the consequences could be should Yerevan definitively decide to distance itself from Russia in the financial sphere, in investment, trade, and economic cooperation. We can already see that the funds being promised to Armenia by the European Union will, to put it mildly, not last long.

The economic relations between Russia and Armenia were built over decades and in many respects over centuries. Severing them is certainly possible, but it would entail enormous economic costs, primarily for Armenia. For Russia, this would also involve certain losses; however, one must frankly acknowledge that a rupture in Russian-Armenian relations would still hit the Armenian economy significantly harder than the Russian one,” the expert said.