Armenia’s EU integration will not preserve dividends it receives from EAEU – Kristina Yermak 

Speaking with Alpha News, Kristina Yermak, an expert in international affairs, commented on the prospects for Armenia’s European integration, Armenia’s freezing of CSTO membership, and what to expect from the Trump presidency.

According to the expert, Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union has a positive impact on Armenian policy.

“Armenia’s intention to join the EU today is presented as a civic initiative, as the will of the people. We see how the same Alen Simonyan says that you can safely cooperate with the EAEU and join the EU, but here expectations may be false. Therefore, risk assessment, which, unfortunately, is receiving little attention today, should undoubtedly be done. The figures show that the EAEU really is the mouthpiece of the Armenian economy. This has a positive impact on Armenian policy. All EAEU partners are responding in solidarity to Armenia’s actions.

Armenia is a sovereign state; it is its sovereign right, but everyone understands that in the long term, integrating more and more with the EU, Armenia will not be able to maintain the dividends that it receives from the EAEU. When cooperation with the EU takes on new forms, there may be nothing left of the EAEU dividends,” Yermak said.

Touching upon Armenia’s membership in the CSTO, the expert noted that Yerevan is not ready to completely burn bridges with the organization.

“The security space is an area that has been forming in the Armenian–Russian relations for years, and it is not an area that can be abandoned in a snap of the fingers.

If you look at the CSTO, then a priori the status of freezing participation is not legally provided in this organization. There is ignoring of meetings, there is non-payment of contributions, but this does not mean withdrawal. The rhetoric coming from the Armenian authorities towards the CSTO today amounts to ignoring participation in the CSTO. In my opinion, there are three scenarios: pessimistic, realistic, and optimistic. And I am more inclined to a realistic scenario where Armenia will continue to distance itself from the CSTO but will not cross the line because it is not willing to completely burn bridges,” Yermak said.

The expert also commented on the charter on strategic partnership signed between the United States and Armenia, the closure of USAID, and a possible change in US policy in the South Caucasus region under Donald Trump’s presidency.