Armenia’s losses from a break with Russia could exceed Ukraine’s experience: Mikhail Pavliv

Mikhail Pavliv, political analyst, commented to Alpha News on the prospects of Armenia’s European integration and the possible consequences for its relations with Russia, drawing parallels with Ukraine’s experience.

In expert’s view, what is happening in Armenia today largely resembles the processes that previously unfolded in Ukraine, and attempts to combine European integration with EAEU membership could lead to a revision of economic relations with Russia.

“I worked in Ukrainian politics from 1997 to 2022, and I witnessed this metamorphosis of the Ukrainian state with my own eyes. And it is absolutely clear to me that what they are now trying to, I will say it plainly, pull off with Armenia is an exact carbon copy of what happened in Ukraine in its time. There is a certain polarization in Armenian society today, though perhaps not as stark or geographically defined as it was in Ukraine, for example. But the view on the geopolitical choice is genuinely polarized as well. Although a considerable part of civil society still holds, it seems to me, the same great misconception that Ukrainians had, that you can sit on two chairs at once. I observed from within Ukrainian politics in 2012–2013, when Russia put the question to Ukraine: if you choose European integration, if you choose to move toward association with the European Union at that time, then the approach to trade relations between Russia and Ukraine must be fundamentally reconsidered. Exactly the same is now being said by Russia’s leadership regarding Armenia’s choice. Russia’s leadership is stating that one cannot remain in the EAEU while pursuing the path of European integration. Russia will, in this case, protect its markets and its producers. And it is absolutely clear that this will lead to a wide range of restrictive measures against Armenia,” Pavliv said.

In analyst’s view, Ukraine’s complete rupture with Russia ultimately ended in a full-scale conflict, resulting in grave consequences.

“What did Ukraine gain politically? Nothing. A dubious story about visa-free travel, dubious because it did not automatically grant Ukrainian citizens the right to work in the European Union, among other things. In practice, it was only entry. A norm that is now, in principle, already restricted. There is a restrictive requirement: you must submit documents in advance. You can no longer simply arrive with a Ukrainian passport, a foreign passport, enter the Schengen zone, and pass through border control without a visa. That no longer exists, documents must be submitted in advance. It is effectively a quasi-visa,” Pavliv noted.

Pavliv noted that beyond Ukraine’s fundamental economic losses, the country has also suffered significant demographic losses.

“Speaking of Ukraine’s complete rupture with Russia, which ultimately ended in a full-scale conflict, that is yet another political consequence. And this is on top of Ukraine’s fundamental economic losses, on top of its fundamental demographic losses, because the outflow of Ukraine’s working-age population to the European Union turned out to be enormous. The same will happen with Armenians. In the end, they got war,” Pavliv noted.

According to the expert, it is important to bear in mind that European integration imposes a vast array of requirements on a state that do not always align with the realities facing residents of the post-Soviet space.

“In practice, you are essentially letting European bureaucracy into the management of your own country. The benefits are zero. In the end, Ukraine’s economy and GDP never recovered to pre-2014 levels. Ukraine has been destroyed by a war it was deliberately pushed into. Ukraine was deliberately turned into an anti-Russia. And it is precisely this path that Armenia is now being pushed toward, a country that will gain nothing economically. Moreover, Armenia’s losses from a break with Russia will be even more dramatic than Ukraine’s losses. And the political consequences will be no less dramatic,” Pavliv concluded.