As long as Armenia is CSTO member, Azerbaijan will not attack it — Dmitry Rodionov

Speaking with Alpha News, Head of the Center for Geopolitical Research at Russia’s Institute of Innovative Development Dmitry Rodionov commented on the relations between Armenia and the United States, and also touched upon the issue of Yerevan’s membership in the CSTO.

“The situation is a bit strange now, of course, we are not talking about the contributions that the CSTO members pay. This is, of course, a significant amount, but everyone understands perfectly well that the stability of the CSTO is ensured by Russia in the same way that the stability of NATO is ensured by the United States. Trump is now trying to force European countries to pay as much as possible, but we all understand perfectly well that no one will be kicked out of NATO, and the United States will never leave NATO.

This is nonsense, nothing more, as well as an attempt to bargain, blackmail, and so on. So, we can say that Russia is very much bothered by the fact that Armenia does not pay its dues. The situation itself is a little absurd. On the one hand, Armenia seems to remain a member of the CSTO, but on the other hand, it is not engaged in the work of the organization. Membership in any organization, including the CSTO, is not only rights but also obligations. Even if they are essentially formal, they must be observed. At the same time, Armenia is concluding a cooperation agreement with the United States when, in fact, we are in a state of cold war. Yes, now there has been some warming between Russia and the United States, at least it seems that we have a warming,” the expert said.

According to Rodionov, Pashinyan is trying to have it both ways, but Russia’s patience is not limitless.

“Pashinyan said that Armenia is freezing its membership in the CSTO, while the CSTO charter does not have such a clause as freezing membership, either you are a member or you are not. And if Pashinyan allows himself, so to speak, to rewrite the Organization’s charter and come up with some new formulations, a logical question arises: do the security guarantees of this Organization extend to a member state of the organization with frozen participation? That is, if Azerbaijan suddenly attacks Armenia, should other CSTO members stand up for Armenia if it has frozen its membership?

This issue needs to be clarified and settled as soon as possible. We see that Pashinyan is trying to have it both ways, but the historical experience of neighboring post-Soviet countries clearly illustrates that this always ends tragically. Russia’s hands are now very tightly tied in Ukraine, not only in military terms but also in terms of diplomacy, politics, and so on. That is, now there is simply no time for this.

And Pashinyan is actively taking advantage of this situation. On the one hand, he clearly understands that as long as Armenia is a member of the CSTO, Azerbaijan will not attack it. On the other hand, he is trying to flirt with the West in front of Russia and without hiding it at all. And the question is when Russia will simply run out of patience or when Russia will simply get around to solving this problem,” Dmitry Rodionov emphasized.