Europe is not ready to replace the Russian market for either Georgia or Armenia: Archil Sikharulidze

Archil Sikharulidze, political scientist and founder of the SIKHA FOUNDATION research institute, commented to Alpha News at the XII International Scientific and Expert Forum “Primakov Readings” on the prospects of replacing the Russian market with a European one for Armenia, drawing on Georgia’s experience, and assessed the realism of South Caucasus countries’ European integration expectations.

According to the expert, it will be even harder for Armenia to replace the Russian market with a European one than it was for Georgia.

“In Georgia’s case there were even more options, because the period was completely different and we had opportunities. However, despite all our aspirations, it turned out that Europe was not ready, Georgian wine was not popular enough or in sufficient demand. To this day, we send the lion’s share to the Russian Federation. So even during a period when all geopolitical factors were favorable for Georgia, it still could not replace Russia. Moreover, we are now increasing our supplies, because Europe is not ready to compensate for the losses we might incur. In Armenia’s case, I think the situation is even more difficult, because the geopolitical environment is different, the dependence on Russia is far more fundamental, and Armenia is geographically more tied to Russia than Georgia ever was. Meanwhile, we have no diplomatic relations with Russia at all. So it seems to me that this attempt to move away from Russia was largely driven by electoral considerations, and now the situation will settle down,” Sikharulidze said.

In the political scientist’s view, talk of South Caucasus European integration is a fairy tale.

“I think that talk of any integration of South Caucasus countries into Europe is a fairy tale. In Georgia, I think there is no longer any doubt that we will not make it into NATO. There are some hopes that we might one day make it into Europe. As for Armenia, I can name only three scenarios: either Armenia joins Europe if Turkey becomes an EU member, or if Georgia joins first, or it won’t happen at all. So it seems to me that Armenia’s story in Europe is an even more distant one. By and large, none of this is true,” Sikharulidze concluded.