If Armenia chooses the EU, consequences should follow immediately: Dmitry Suslov

Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics, commented to Alpha News on Moscow’s economic restrictions against Armenia, the possible disqualification of the Strong Armenia bloc from the upcoming elections, and Russia’s relations with the US, EU, and Turkey.

Russia, Suslov said, distinguishes between the Armenian people and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government, which it views as having chosen to side with Russia’s adversaries. He argued that Yerevan is trying to manage a gradual shift toward the EU while keeping its Russian military base in Gyumri and retaining EAEU membership for as long as possible, a strategy Moscow will not accept. If Armenia has committed to EU integration, as enshrined in a law passed by the Armenian parliament last year, Russia believes the consequences, including Armenia’s exit from the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and loss of access to Russian and EAEU markets, should take effect immediately. Russia is therefore calling for a referendum to clarify the Armenian public’s wishes.

Should the Strong Armenia bloc be disqualified from the elections two days before the vote, Suslov said, Russia would very likely refuse to recognize the results and would consider Pashinyan an illegitimate prime minister, ruling out any further dialogue with him. He described the potential disqualification as a sign of what he called the “Moldovization” of Armenian politics, a pattern he attributed to EU influence over post-Soviet governments aligned against Russia.

On economic consequences, Suslov argued that the EU cannot adequately replace the Russian market for Armenia, pointing to Georgia as a cautionary example. He noted that the EU’s agricultural market is among the most protected in the world, leaving Armenia little room to offset losses.

Regarding the TRIPP project and Armenia’s growing ties with the US and EU, Suslov said Moscow views Brussels’ actions as part of a broader war against Russia. He noted that visits to Washington by Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, followed by trips to Armenia by US Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaled a continued hostile US posture toward Russia despite ongoing dialogue under the Trump administration.

Suslov concluded that both Azerbaijan and Turkey have a stake in Pashinyan’s electoral victory, and that when a country’s adversaries back a particular candidate, it is cause for serious concern. He warned that Armenia’s sharp foreign policy pivot risks destabilizing the country and could have dangerous consequences.