Beniamin Matevosyan: Macron, instead of Erdogan, is withdrawing the 102nd military base from Armenia

(A key outcome of the European summit in Armenia)

The outcomes of the European summit in Yerevan leave a lingering aftertaste of deep uncertainty and anxiety over Armenia’s sovereignty. While official propaganda celebrates a “breakthrough” in relations with the West, the real figures and statements point to a diplomatic trap rather than security guarantees. The main beneficiary of this game, paradoxically, turns out to be not Armenia and not even France, but the Turkey–Azerbaijan tandem, whose long-held dream of squeezing out Russian presence from the region has suddenly found a voice in President Emmanuel Macron.

One of the central items on the financial agenda was the allocation of 30 million euros from the European Peace Facility to strengthen Armenia’s defence capacity. At first glance, the sum seems significant, but the devil is in the details: European parity policy implies that Azerbaijan receives equivalent support. The “assistance” thus becomes a zero-sum game that does not shift the balance of power but creates the illusion of support. Moreover, these funds are directed exclusively toward non-lethal equipment, which, in the face of a real military threat, looks more like a symbolic gesture than a genuine contribution to security. Armenia is paying for these “European crumbs” by severing fundamental ties with its traditional ally, receiving nothing in return but promises of monitoring and consultations.

Macron’s address in Yerevan was the apex of brazen interference in the internal affairs of a sovereign state. His words that Armenia had been Russia’s “satellite” for decades and must escape this “trap” ring deeply cynical.

It is worth remembering that in 2018, when, by Macron’s own logic, Armenia was that very “satellite,” he came to Yerevan without a moment’s hesitation for the Francophonie summit. The current rhetoric about “geopolitical coming of age” is not concern for Armenia’s independence; it is an attempt to use the country as a tool in a global confrontation with Moscow.

Paradoxically, by speaking out against the 102nd Russian military base, Macron is de facto doing what Recep Tayyip Erdogan had unsuccessfully tried to achieve for years. Eliminating the Russian military factor without providing legally binding Western security guarantees turns Macron into an effective Turkish proxy, clearing the path for pan-Turkic expansion.

Particular concern is raised by the complete absence of any coherent response from Armenia’s authorities to such statements. Pashinyan and his inner circle remain silent while a foreign leader dictates whose troops should be stationed on their territory. This silence speaks louder than any slogan about sovereignty, confirming Yerevan’s loss of agency. Rather than preventing interference in matters of national security, the country’s leadership is playing along with Macron, who, incidentally, bears a striking resemblance to the Armenian prime minister when it comes to “territorial achievements.”

If Pashinyan has written his name into history as the leader under whom Artsakh was lost, Macron is rapidly losing French influence in Africa, surrendering one former colony after another. An alliance between two politicians whose careers are marked by geopolitical retreats can hardly bring Armenia stability.

Against the backdrop of calls to abandon military-technical cooperation with Russia, the central question remains unanswered: who will defend the borders? Macron mentions Frontex, a body designed to manage migration flows and monitor borders, not to conduct combat operations or deter regular armies. The attempt to replace a real military shield with EU observation missions looks like an invitation to fresh escalation. Ultimately, the strategic partnership the Élysée Palace speaks of amounts, for now, to Armenia spending millions from its own budget to host lavish summits, and receiving in return a deepening conflict with Russia and the prospect of being left alone to face Azerbaijan and Turkey.

In this complex chess match, Macron is playing white, but in Ankara’s interests, and Armenia risks ending up as nothing more than a disposable piece on the board, swept aside once it has served its purpose of pushing Russia out.

Think about that…