Beniamin Matevosyan: neither Aliyev nor Pashinyan is considered a friend in Moscow

(Russia responded to Aliyev with a strike on a tanker carrying Azerbaijanis)

Recently, the dynamics of geopolitical processes in the South Caucasus have shown a clear shift toward the systematic displacement of Russian influence. Moscow sees clearly that Baku and Yerevan, despite their declared disagreements, are acting in a certain unison when it comes to changing the historical balance of power. The actions of Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan in the South Caucasus are increasingly perceived by Russian analysts as the joint implementation of a geopolitical project conceptually similar to the ideas of John Bolton, former US National Security Advisor. This refers to a deliberate “change of historical stereotypes” in the region, a gradual severing of centuries-old ties with Moscow, and its systematic squeezing-out of regional processes in the South Caucasus.

Moscow’s reaction to the statements and political moves of the two republics’ leaders is becoming increasingly harsh and pragmatic. The Russian side has long had no illusions about either Pashinyan or Aliyev. Neither leader is seen in the Kremlin as an equal, let alone reliable, partner. Moscow is registering growing anti-Russian rhetoric and concrete steps aimed at destabilizing traditional formats of interaction.

Particular irritation is caused by the Azerbaijani leader’s historical excursions. Aliyev’s statements at the global media forum in Shusha, where he effectively equated Azerbaijan’s time within the Russian Empire and the USSR to a colonial period, did not go unnoticed. The accusations that billions of tons of oil were exported from the republic while it was left with environmental damage and an energy deficit look like an attempt to completely rewrite shared history. Left out of such statements is the fact that for decades during the Soviet era the republic was led by Heydar Aliyev, who held the highest party and state positions in the USSR. Such historical manipulations, combined with statements in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, are perceived in Russia as an unambiguous hostile signal.

Moscow’s response, it seems, was not long in coming, and it is being translated into direct pressure both military and economic. Recent incidents clearly show that Russia is prepared to act firmly, disregarding diplomatic politesse. The strikes on facilities belonging to Azerbaijan’s state oil and gas company SOCAR in Ukraine’s Nikolaev region in early July served as a serious warning to Baku, which, by Aliyev’s own admission, does not share Russia’s position on the Ukrainian issue. The Azerbaijani side was quick to call the attacks deliberate and demanded an investigation, but Moscow made it clear that any infrastructure operating in the conflict zone is a legitimate target, regardless of the owners’ nationality.

The next extremely painful blow was a drone attack on the civilian merchant vessel Atlas Bey off the coast of Odesa. The fact that the ship belongs to a Turkish company, and its entire crew consisted of 11 Azerbaijani nationals, including a missing captain, gives the incident particular symbolism. In Baku, the event caused shock and prompted emergency mobilization of diplomatic agencies. Among experts, the incident is unanimously interpreted as a pointed response from Russia to Aliyev’s anti-Russian rhetoric and his flirtation with the West and Kyiv.

Thus, an era of diplomatic courtesies in the South Caucasus is coming to an end. Moscow is demonstrating that a high price will be paid for any attempts to force Russia out of the region or flirt with its geopolitical opponents. Attempts to portray Russia as an “occupier” and “colonizer” are now turning into a direct threat to Azerbaijan’s economic and transport assets abroad, revealing the fragility of a sovereignty built on confrontation with the regional heavyweight.

Think about it…