The Russian-Armenian split is not inevitable: Movses Ghazaryan

Political analyst Movses Kazaryan shared his assessment of the current state of Russian-Armenian relations with Alpha News.

“The current state of Russian-Armenian relations is in a somewhat suspended and rather tense condition. And sadly, the source of this tension and uncertainty is Armenia itself. The position of the country’s leadership, despite all its statements in favor of expanding partnership and strengthening ties, nevertheless creates quite negative tendencies. For instance, even the statement by Armenian parliament speaker Alen Simonyan following the talks between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the Russian president, that withdrawal from the EAEU and the CSTO is possible if gas prices rise, is still an indicator of a destructive approach,” Ghazaryan believes.

The Alpha News interlocutor also touched on the recent communication between the leaders of Armenia and Russia.

“Overall, it is probably most fitting to describe the outcomes as ambiguous in terms of the prospects for Russian-Armenian relations. And it appears that the narrative of Armenia withdrawing from strategic cooperation with Russia remains quite significant. It is simply that the corresponding foreign policy and geopolitical circumstances have not yet matured for official Yerevan. Overall, sadly, this narrative is palpable. However, I do not believe that the Russian-Armenian split is already inevitable. A great deal depends on Yerevan’s position and on this year’s parliamentary elections,” the expert emphasized.

He also identified what he sees as the final remaining obstacle on the path to European Union integration, the Armenian people.

“Pashinyan’s understanding of the ‘point of no return’ involves, first, the opening of the Armenian-Turkish border; second, moving to a more institutional level of engagement with the Western community either through the EU, or through NATO, or through intermediary projects involving Turkey. And third, the so-called ‘resolution’ of regional issues. ‘So-called’ because, in his view, this de facto means a loss of sovereignty. The key aspect remains foreign policy positioning, what we observe on Pashinyan’s part, as well as the circumstances he is counting on. And ultimately, the final word rests with the Armenian people. He needs to overcome societal resistance in order to steer Armenia down the path of Westernization,” Movses Kazaryan concluded.