Russia wants a clear answer on where Armenia is headed: Boris Rozhin

Boris Rozhin, expert at the Center for Military-Political Journalism, commented to Alpha News on the Russian Foreign Ministry’s statement that Armenia risks losing its privileges within the EAEU, on the direction of Armenian-Russian relations, and on the lifting of restrictions on direct trade between Armenia and Turkey.

“We can see this through a whole range of steps connected to the CSTO and to the geopolitical landscape. The recent visits to Armenia by NATO representatives and by Zelensky were quite telling. Russia is warning that if this course continues, the course aimed at turning Armenia into something resembling the Baltic states, or Moldova and Ukraine, Russia will have no reason whatsoever to maintain any economic preferences for Armenia. If Armenia wishes, it can go and beg for those preferences from the West. Energy prices will change accordingly, which will immediately affect the cost of everything in Armenia, along with a whole range of other economic factors, since Armenia is objectively dependent on Russia. You cannot sit on two chairs at once. Ideologically, Pashinyan will of course push towards a complete severing of relations between Armenia and Russia. It is simply the economic dependence that makes these steps harder for him,” Rozhin said.

In the expert’s view, Russia wants a clear answer on where Armenia is heading.

“If Armenia wants to move towards the European Union while, as they say, making use of Russia’s economic support, then of course there is no reason for Russia to continue supporting the Armenian economy. Russia wants a clear answer on where Armenia is heading. If Yerevan is moving towards the EU, economic preference programmes will be wound down. Of course, no referendum on the EU will be held in Armenia, because under current conditions such a referendum would clearly not produce a majority in favour. That is to say, all attempts to find out the opinion of the people are essentially a formality. Nobody is going to ask the people. If Europe has decided to pull one country or another into the EU, the work will be done with the elites. And those who cannot immediately shift to openly anti-Russian positions will move gradually, while extracting economic preferences for as long as possible. Moscow understands this, which is precisely why it is demanding a clear answer from Armenia,” Rozhin said.

Speaking about the lifting of restrictions on direct trade between Turkey and Armenia, the expert said this could undermine Russian influence in the South Caucasus.

“This could undermine Russian influence in the South Caucasus, since it is obvious that Russia today holds dominant economic influence in Armenia, and through Turkey that influence can be gradually eroded. Turkey holds fairly strong positions in the South Caucasus, as can be clearly seen in the case of Georgia. Accordingly, there is no reason why, with further normalisation, the Turkish economy would not attempt to absorb the objectively weaker Armenian economy. Previously, this was constrained by Russian influence. Now that influence, thanks to Pashinyan, has been called seriously into question. So why would Turkey not attempt to carve out its own economic share? For the United States, the interest here lies in undermining Russian influence. This is part of consolidating a foothold in the region in connection with the so-called ‘Trump Corridor.’ That project is currently somewhat stalled due to the disastrous war against Iran, but of course nobody has abandoned it. Attempts will continue to be made to advance it. Much will depend, however, on how the further conflict with Iran develops, since Tehran may in one way or another work to counter this project,” Rozhin concluded.