Trump will have to choose between negotiations and escalation in the Middle East: Malek Dudakov

Malek Dudakov, American studies political scientist, commented to Alpha News on the situation in the Middle East. According to him, US President Donald Trump will have to return from his China tour empty-handed.

“As for the situation in the Middle East, at this point, as we can see, the Donald Trump administration was seriously hoping to reach an agreement with China and somehow persuade it to pressure Iran, thus making Tehran more amenable on the question of opening the Strait of Hormuz. In other words, the Chinese were offered concessions on investments, on the supply of American chips, and so on. But it appears that no meaningful movement on this issue has come from China’s side. All the more so given that Iran is not a satellite state of China, so while Beijing’s influence exists, it is nonetheless limited. Trump is now indeed returning from his China tour empty-handed on the Middle Eastern front, and will once again find himself at the same crossroads that has been haunting him throughout the weeks since the announcement of the so-called ceasefire with Iran,” Dudakov said.

According to the political scientist, Trump is once again having to choose between negotiations and escalation.

“Trump now needs to either reach an agreement with Iran on realistic terms and then reduce the military presence in the Middle East, given how costly it is to maintain American aircraft carriers, destroyers, and personnel in the region or pursue an escalation scenario. This could mean either a limited missile strike on Iran in an attempt to make it more negotiable, though the Americans have previously failed at this, or a sharp increase in the level of escalation, strikes not only on Iran, but also a ground operation on the Iranian coastline or on islands in the Strait of Hormuz. However, this scenario is extremely risky for the United States, as it would result in significant American military casualties,” Dudakov noted.

In the expert’s view, more than 70% of Americans view Trump’s actions on Iran negatively.

“The prospect of war with Iran is extremely unpopular in American society. More than 70% of Americans view Trump’s actions negatively, favor the earliest possible end to hostilities without preconditions, and are suffering from the twofold rise in fuel prices that has materialized on the American market since the start of this war. A prolonged period of confrontation with Iran will therefore undermine the Republicans’ position in the upcoming Congressional elections, and Trump is unlikely to risk going down that path. His window of opportunity is constantly narrowing, and Iran is, in fact, counting on exactly that. Tehran is hoping to buy time and hold out until the Congressional elections, after which Trump will have little bandwidth left for Iran. For Trump himself, the coming weeks will be decisive, he will have to choose between an escalation scenario and a more realistic settlement. Which way he ultimately goes, we shall see. But there are no good options for Trump right now: as in chess, every move only worsens his position,” Dudakov concluded.