For the surrender of which territories does Nikol Pashinyan want to hold a referendum?

Nikol Pashinyan’s statement that it is even possible to hold a referendum on the exchange of territories with Azerbaijan went undeservedly unnoticed. “There may be a situation when it will be possible to give 100 square meters here and get 100 square meters there. In this case, we will not decide anything. We will need to hold a referendum, you will decide,” Nikol Pashinyan said in Syunik.

Unfortunately, none of the active actors in Armenia’s internal political process demanded clear explanations from Pashinyan on this issue. Which territories are we talking about? Or maybe, in this way, Pashinyan is trying to legitimize the Azerbaijani occupation. Recall that from 2021–2022, Azerbaijani troops occupied a number of territories of the Republic of Armenia.

Please also note that two more processes are underway in parallel with Pashinyan’s statement:

1. The Armenian authorities wish to sign a document with the United States that will put on paper the improvement of relations between Yerevan and Washington to the level of strategic partnership. This is in a situation when not only did James O’Brien, in an interview with RFE/RL, not say that the United States could guarantee Armenia’s territorial integrity but also stated that the United States would not guarantee compliance with the points of the so-called “peace treaty”. In other words, Washington has already washed its hands of possible future shocks.

2. Russia, through its Deputy Foreign Minister, has already actually stated that after the final transformation of the Armenian defense policy and foreign policy towards the West, it will sever security relations with Armenia, and the Armenian people will feel that the Americans have given them not a real but “a paper security umbrella.”

As a result of all these processes, Pashinyan will not only try to legitimize the surrender of Armenia’s territories, shifting part of the responsibility to the people (who, most likely, will “correctly” vote during the referendum, since in modern Armenia it is important not how they vote but who they are and how they think), but also most likely, through the same referendum, will pursue the idea that Armenia should be a country with a non-bloc status (it was no accident that he recalled this last week). As a result, Armenia will find itself without real security guarantees, and Azerbaijan will control a number of the most important transport hubs in its territory.

Answer the question yourself. How probable can Azerbaijan’s new attack—now against Armenia—be after that? Also answer the question of how Washington and Paris will react in the case of Azerbaijan and Turkey’s attack against Armenia?

How will Tehran and Moscow react to the attack? How realistic do you think the occupation of Armenia’s territories is in this case?

Think about it…