Armenia’s exit from the EAEU threatens sharp economic decline: Fyodor Chernitsyn

Fyodor Chernitsyn, Deputy Head of the Secretariat of the Deputy Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation, spoke to Alpha News at a session of the Lazarev Club about the possible consequences of Armenia leaving the EAEU.

“Everything that could be done for the Armenian economy has already been delivered within the EAEU framework. Replacing trade turnover with member states through alternatives is impossible in the medium term,” he said, outlining a cascade of consequences: the disappearance of unified standards, mutual recognition of documents and medical product registrations, the end of free trade zones, tighter sanitary and transport controls, and the loss of access to a 730-million-person common market. In the labor sphere, free employment would vanish, workers would need permits, face time limits, lose access to state medical insurance without five years of service, and lose mutual diploma recognition. Energy prices for gas and petroleum products could rise to world market levels. “Current preferential prices could increase several times over.”

“In other words, the familiar conditions of trade, work, movement, and energy supply could disappear, seriously transforming the economic and social situation,” Chernitsyn noted.

On EU sanctions requirements, he warned that Armenia joining anti-Russia restrictions could trigger a collapse across tourism, food, beverages, and other exports. “The European prospect for Armenia could mean having to cut air links with Russia, and we will respond to that. Right now planes are flying, but otherwise they will not, leading to a sharp drop in tourist flows.” He added that preliminary estimates point to a GDP contraction of up to 40%, an export decline of up to 75%, and an import decline of up to 55%, with unemployment potentially rising to 17%.