Pashinyan’s course leads to a break with Russia: Andrey Perla

Andrei Perla, political analyst, commented to Alpha News on statements by Russian authorities directed at Armenia, relations between Moscow and Yerevan, the crisis in Russia-Armenia relations, and the prospects of Armenia’s participation in the EAEU and its rapprochement with the EU.

“This is a suicidal policy for Armenia. Because Armenia’s gross domestic product is, by various estimates, tied to trade with Russia by as much as 40, or even 60 percent. In other words, if Armenia loses its trade relationship with Russia, it loses its economy. There will be nothing to compensate for that,” Perla said.

According to the political analyst, no benefit can be drawn from severing good-neighbourly relations with Russia.

“Russia has always treated Armenia and the Armenian people with goodwill. But Pashinyan can do a great deal to change that attitude. In this regard he resembles Saakashvili, who managed to bring Georgia’s relations with Russia to the point of war and sanctions. Such a policy is not pragmatic: severing good-neighbourly ties brings no benefit, only monstrous harm in energy, in transport, in financial transfers, and in matters of security,” Perla noted.

In the expert’s view, Pashinyan actually wants harsh statements to come from Russia and harsh measures to be taken in order to justify his own policy of breaking ties with Russia.

“He would like to use those measures to justify his policy of severing relations with Russia. That is why he quite deliberately inflicts insults on Russia through his actions. And when this is pointed out to him, he puts on an innocent face. He does not even apologize, he says: ‘You misunderstood me, I didn’t mean anything like that,'” Perla noted.

According to the political analyst, the European Union is by no means eager to admit Armenia any time soon.

“I would describe Pashinyan’s behavior as deranged. Armenia is in a state of military threat, and that must not be forgotten. It is in a state of economic threat. Armenia has no adequate food security system if certain products, primarily grain, are not imported, famine will set in. If energy imports are cut off, Armenia will again see what it already experienced in the early 1990s: cold apartments in winter, a blockade, and a severe crisis. And Pashinyan is essentially pushing Armenia toward exactly that. Pashinyan is pushing Armenia into crisis for the sole purpose of having Europe say: ‘He is independent from Russia.’ But the EU has no intention of admitting Armenia and is not even prepared to grant it candidate status. Talk of joining the European Union is a joke. There is not even a prospect of obtaining EU candidate status which, incidentally, Turkey does hold. On the other hand, the EAEU will not actually expel Armenia from its ranks, unless Armenia itself requests it,” the expert said.

In his words, the problems with supplies from Armenia: flowers, fruit, and vegetables can be seen as a warning from Russia.

“The economy of present-day Armenia can be considered quite developed; one could even say it is prospering to a certain degree. But this prosperity is tied to very rigid and very powerful links with Russia. More than half of Armenia’s economy exists precisely because it is interconnected with Russia. Consequently, if a situation of serious conflict were to arise and Russia began restricting Armenian exports and imports, a colossal hole would open up in the Armenian economy that nothing could fill. That is precisely why it is impossible to say that Armenia could derive any benefit from such a conflict,” Perla concluded.

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