Beniamin Matevosyan: the authorities are lying, problems with Russia will only grow after June 8, if…

(Moscow refuses to finance Armenia’s accession to the EU)

The propaganda talking points of Armenia’s current authorities are increasingly taking on the character of outright political myth-making, divorced from economic reality. Citizens are persistently fed the idea that the ongoing trade and economic friction with Moscow is merely a temporary phenomenon, a kind of “closing note” of pressure that will miraculously cease after June 8. The logic of pro-government propagandists is simple and absurd: the Kremlin is supposedly using economic leverage temporarily, violating the foundations of the EAEU, but once the domestic political situation in Armenia stabilizes in the regime’s favor, these sanctions will stop, since they allegedly “shoot Russia in the foot.” The public is simply told to “hold on” for the remaining two weeks, with promises that access to the vast Russian market will automatically be restored. These promises, however, bear no relation to reality and serve only as a smokescreen concealing the systemic geopolitical dead end into which the government is steering the country.

In reality, June 8 will bring no relief, and the emerging crisis in relations with Armenia’s key economic partner will only deepen if the current authorities retain their political monopoly. By trying to sit in two chairs at once, preserving the enormous privileges of EAEU membership while simultaneously accelerating rapprochement with the European Union, official Yerevan is displaying a dangerous short-sightedness. The Russian side has already stated openly that it has no intention of bankrolling Armenia’s European integration at its own expense. The republic’s status within the union is set to be the subject of a frank discussion among heads of state at the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council session on May 29 in Astana. Moscow points directly to the fact that over 11 years of EAEU membership, Armenia achieved unprecedented GDP growth precisely thanks to unique economic privileges, a common market, and low energy prices. Expecting Russia to continue subsidizing a country that openly declares its transition to EU standards and aligns itself with states hostile to Russia is the height of naivety.

The response from Armenia’s diplomatic establishment, voiced by Ararat Mirzoyan, the foreign minister, looks like an attempt to hide behind legal formulations and the organization’s charter. Statements to the effect that the question of excluding or freezing Armenia’s membership cannot be discussed without its consent, owing to the consensus principle, reveal a failure to grasp the essence of real politics. Moscow and the other members of the union have no need to formally exclude Yerevan from the EAEU in order to strip it of its benefits.

It is sufficient to pragmatically introduce tariff barriers, tighten phytosanitary controls, revise gas prices, or cancel bilateral preferences. If the Armenian leadership continues its course toward Brussels, the integration dividends will evaporate on their own.

Continuing on the current political course threatens Armenia with catastrophic consequences capable of hurling the country back to the “bright nineties.” Should local businesses definitively lose free access to the Russian market and the markets of other EAEU states, for which no alternative exists in the West or the Turkic world, the republic faces a large-scale economic collapse.

No European grants will be able to offset the billion-dollar losses from halted exports of agricultural produce, textiles, and alcohol, nor the inevitable rise in the cost of strategic raw materials. The authorities must determine their real priorities more quickly, because the illusion that all problems will resolve themselves after June 8 will ultimately shatter, leaving Armenian entrepreneurs alone amid the ruins of the national economy.

Think about it…