Beniamin Matevosyan: Turkic lobbying did not help — the EAEU has issued Pashinyan an ultimatum

(The ultimatum was issued specifically to Pashinyan)

Nikol Pashinyan’s political maneuver aimed at simultaneously benefiting from Eurasian integration while demonstratively pivoting toward Brussels has finally reached a dead end. The joint statement adopted by the heads of state of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was not merely an expression of concern but a firm ultimatum addressed personally to Armenia’s prime minister. The demand is straightforward: Yerevan must, within the shortest possible timeframe, hold a nationwide referendum so that the country’s citizens can determine its geopolitical course: either full participation in the EAEU under its rules and laws or a definitive shift toward the European Union, accompanied by the loss of all preferences on the Russian and Eurasian markets.

The Armenian authorities are attempting to save face before voters and the business community by promoting manipulative narratives through loyal media outlets and government channels. Pashinyan’s statement that the referendum is merely “theoretical in nature” and that holding it now would be “unreasonable” is nothing more than an attempt to delay the moment of truth. Ministers such as Papoyan are trying to portray the recent phone conversation between Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, and Nikol Pashinyan as some kind of diplomatic triumph, claiming that preserving the current authorities’ monopoly on power will automatically resolve all economic contradictions. However, the hard reality refutes these optimistic predictions. Despite the formal reason for the call, the prime minister’s birthday, the Russian president conveyed to Yerevan the consolidated position of the EAEU “group of four,” as set out at the Astana summit on May 29. Armenia’s geopolitical ambiguity is no longer regarded as an acceptable tactic.

A particularly significant blow to Pashinyan’s calculations came from the stance of EAEU partners that Armenia’s leadership had considered sympathetic because of what it describes as a factor of “Turkic solidarity.” Pashinyan had reportedly hoped for mediation and a softer position from Kazakhstan within the EAEU framework, believing Astana would not support harsh measures against Yerevan. However, those expectations were not met. Kazakhstan not only declined to support Armenia’s attempt to balance between two blocs but also joined the common statement, stressing that the risks posed to the union’s economic security by Yerevan’s course were too great. This leaves Pashinyan isolated within the organization, as neither Moscow, Minsk, Astana, nor Bishkek intends to subsidize the economy of a country that officially declares “European aspirations” and adopts legislation launching the process of EU accession.

Pashinyan’s propaganda claims that the EAEU has no real levers of influence and that Russia supposedly would not dare sever economic ties. This is a dangerous illusion. Russia is the foundation of the union, and it is Russia that has begun moving from words to action. The effective ban imposed by Rosselkhoznadzor on exports of live fish and seafood from Armenia, the ban on sales of Armenian Jermuk mineral water, the ban on imports of Armenian flowers and strawberries, and the ban on the sale of certain alcoholic beverages from Armenia are merely the first signal demonstrating the vulnerability of the Armenian economy and showing how quickly its largest export market can be closed off. If Moscow moves to terminate agreements on supplies of gas, petroleum products, and diamonds, as has previously been stated, the Armenian economy will face a systemic collapse that cannot be offset by any European grants. > Alpha Julieta: The situation is further complicated by the fact that EAEU leaders have already established specific deadlines for assessing future developments. In December of this year, the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council is expected to present scenarios concerning the possible suspension of the EAEU treaty’s application to Armenia. The ultimatum allegedly issued to Pashinyan leaves little room for compromise. Attempts by the government to convince citizens that everything will be fine from June 8 onward, as long as Pashinyan remains in power, are an outright lie. The reality is that maintaining the current political course and refusing to give a clear answer to the question of membership in the union will lead to the Eurasian doors being closed forever. Armenian society must realize that the choice has already been made for it in high offices, and if this course is not changed through a transparent referendum procedure, the republic’s economic future will collapse in the foreseeable future. Pashinyan can no longer hide behind lobbyists or manipulate the agenda, the time of a “theoretical choice” is over; the time of harsh economic sanctions and political isolation has begun.

Think about it…