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Hakob Badalyan | What will happen in 2025? | Artsakh, Armenia, New World Order

January 16 2025, 22:00

As part of the “What will happen in 2025? Artsakh, Armenia, New World Order” project, Alpha News talked with political commentator Hakob Badalyan.

Badalyan does not see any preconditions for Yerevan and Baku to sign the so-called peace agreement in 2025, a document they have been negotiating for four years. According to him, this document is not being signed not only because Baku does not want it, but also because there is no appropriate geopolitical environment that would allow to realistically consider the signing of this agreement.

“The peace agreement should be complete and balanced, reflecting the interests of Armenia, not only Azerbaijan’s unilateral demands. Because if we follow unilateral demands, it is possible to reach a point where Baku will get what it wants and sign any document. Therefore, there is no appropriate environment to sign a balanced agreement. Of course, we cannot rule out any changes, because serious changes in certain regions may occur in the world within a few days, but I emphasize that there are no prerequisites for this agreement today,” Hakob Badalyan said.

He does not rule out that Turkey and Azerbaijan will try to militarily obtain the road passing through Syunik, which they call the “Zangezur corridor.”

“It is obvious that they are preparing for this, but I do not believe they will take such a step, at least not without being sure that it will be internationally acceptable. And in this regard, the situation there is complicated. On the one hand, there are risks that this issue may receive the support of Western NATO against Russia and Iran; on the other hand, Moscow and Tehran, failing to find more substantial counteraction mechanisms, may develop a political resolution with Ankara and Baku, which will also imply that Turkish and Azerbaijani ideas will be implemented,” the political scientist said.

According to Hakob Badalyan, Armenia does not have a clear focus in foreign policy today.

“Pashinyan realizes he cannot lead Armenia anywhere. Pashinyan is trying to ensure the stability of his government with the possible diverse external sources and, accordingly, to ensure a stable security environment around Armenia to avoid problems arising from destabilization. Since Pashinyan sees that there is no single mechanism capable of working, for example, in the South Caucasus, and ensuring security, he is trying to get the most out of different directions in terms of both his government and the security environment. It is quite difficult to assess how he does it, because we see relative stability, but it is very difficult to assess at what price this stability is achieved,” Hakob Badalyan said.