Iran-Israel conflict: shocks and expectations for the global economy

The conflict between Iran and Israel is already impacting the global economy, with its consequences depending on various possible scenarios. Initial market reactions have been shocking, accompanied by volatility and difficulty in forecasting.

As expected, stock indices and oil prices were the most sensitive. Major indices initially fell but later partially recovered, while oil prices continue to rise. This is because Iran exports about 2 million barrels of oil per day and is the third-largest oil producer among oil-producing countries. In case of supply disruptions, global markets react by increasing prices.

Armenia is also feeling the effects of the crisis. In particular, trade through Iran has been temporarily blocked, hampering the delivery of goods, including some 300 containers of Chinese goods stuck at the port of Bandar Abbas. In the long run, this could lead to significant economic losses for the country, given that trade turnover between Armenia and Iran amounted to 2.4% of the total in 2024 (about $740 million) and 3.5% in the first months of 2025 (about $222 million).

If the crisis persists, Armenia’s economic growth could decline from a projected 5.1% to 1.3%, putting strategic projects with Iran at risk.

The situation remains dynamic, and further developments will depend on political decisions and global market reactions.