Why have the international organizations revised their forecasts? Armenia’s economic growth is projected to decline

International partner organizations that regularly report on the Armenian economy have recently revised their forecasts for the country’s economic growth.

The 2025 budget is based on economic growth of 5.1%. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has recently downgraded its previous forecast from 4.9% to 4.4%. Similarly, the Asian Development Bank revised its forecast from 6% to 5%, and the World Bank lowered its estimate from 5% to 4%. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development left its forecast unchanged (5%) but stressed the numerous risks.

Rising social tensions and unemployment: Armenia in 2025 through the eyes of IMF experts

According to IMF experts, there will be social pressure from various sides, including rising unemployment. The unemployment rate was 13% in 2024. Projections suggest it will rise to 13.5% in 2025 and reach 14% by 2026.

This forecast deserves attention, especially given the government’s ongoing campaign to create an unprecedented number of new jobs—a promise that continues to be widely promoted.

Additionally, international partner organizations highlight not only uncertainty, instability, and various risks, but also rising prices and weakening external influences. Compared to actual inflation in 2024, the price increase is predicted by all these institutions.

On the other hand, a common assessment remains: external factors are canceled/weakened.