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Why is Azerbaijan so sure that Pashinyan will hand over Syunik?

June 26 2024, 12:46

 

Pro-government information resources are indignant because another festival-congress, “Return to Western Azerbaijan,” was held in Azerbaijan. Within the framework of the festival, there were not only plenary sessions at which pseudoscientific research on the topic of “historical heritage of Western Azerbaijan” was presented, but also the “festival of Irevan sweets.” This is how Azerbaijan is preparing for Pashinyan’s “era of peace.”

However, watching what is happening, Azerbaijan’s rhetoric, and its foreign policy, many people may get the impression that the “educated and constructive Aliyev,” as Pashinyan described him years earlier, is confident that Syunik will soon be under Baku’s control. How can Azerbaijan be so sure, as it is already talking about lists of those who will potentially be resettled in Syunik and preparing maps with new Azerbaijani toponyms for Armenian settlements? In general, what is happening around the Armenian Syunik and Armenia in general?

Today, the media can see the comments of many political scientists and analysts who repeat over and over again that in terms of geopolitics, Armenia has a choice between Turkey and Russia. Although Pashinyan’s propaganda convinces people of the opposite (by telling tales about Armenia’s European and Euro-Atlantic prospects), Nikol Pashinyan understands perfectly well at a strategic, deep level that the dilemma for Armenia is really just that—either a strategic alliance with Russia or becoming part of the Turkic world.

Judging by developments around Armenia, it becomes clear that the government is most likely guided by the following logical chain: as long as Armenia has a common land border with Iran, this allows Russia to transfer weapons and troops to Armenia, provide military assistance to Armenia in case of threat, which in turn creates a base for Russia’s political influence, with political influence being transformed into economic ties. If the land border with Iran is removed from this chain, this will deprive both Tehran and Moscow of even theoretical opportunities to provide military aid to Armenia, which in turn will lead to neutralizing their political influence in Armenia, and this will finally sever economic ties with Russia.

In this kind of Armenia (the “appendix of Turkey,” which does not have a border with Iran, remaining “in the arms of Baku and Ankara”), Nikol Pashinyan and his government will be harmonious. Azerbaijan understands this and feels confident…

If the “situation gets out of control” and Armenia as such no longer exists at all, this is not a problem for the current authorities, since if there is no Armenia, there will be no entity that can hold them accountable.
Do you think this is an exaggeration? Then listen to one of Nikol Pashinyan’s political partners, the head of the Hanrapetutyun Party, Aram Sargsyan, who, like Pashinyan, is already preparing an alibi for the current government. He is preparing an alibi stating that thanks to the referendum on EU membership (which, as we recall, can be held by the Armenian authorities but will not have any legal consequences for Brussels), the government will have a consolidated people, which, in the event of war, will assume the same responsibility to resist this war as the government itself.

Think about it…