There will be serious problems in Armenia-Russia relations: Dmitry Solonnikov

Political analyst Dmitry Solonnikov commented to Alpha News on the remarks made by Mikhail Galuzin, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, regarding Armenia’s possible withdrawal from the Eurasian Economic Union and accession to the EU, and analyzed the potential consequences of these steps.

“Galuzin’s statement was made within the framework of Russia’s general concept and overall policy, which has already been articulated on multiple occasions at the highest level, including by President Vladimir Putin. Indeed, it is impossible to simultaneously remain within the EAEU economic zone, receiving preferential terms here, and join the European Union, receiving preferential terms there, it is one or the other. A customs border with corresponding taxation of all goods must exist somewhere. It is impossible to receive cheap electricity from Russia, cheap gas and oil, have access to the open Russian market, and at the same time receive goods from the European Union while trading in both directions, this position has been stated repeatedly. It has already been said that, if it comes to that, the EAEU will begin reviewing the procedure for terminating Armenia’s membership in the organization. Most likely, if the elections proceed as the European Union plans and Armenia continues concluding agreements with the EU, the EAEU will respond accordingly,” Solonnikov believes.

In the analyst’s view, the damage from Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU would be incomparable for Russia and Armenia respectively.

“If Armenia leaves the EAEU, it will be Armenia’s economy that collapses, not Russia’s. Russia’s economy would most likely not even notice. In terms of supplies, sales of electricity, oil, and gas to Armenia would decline, but all of it would then cost three to four times more than it does now. So it is not a tragedy, but it is an inconvenience for Russia,” the Alpha News interlocutor emphasized.

The political analyst predicts a sharp decline in Armenia’s social and economic standing in the event of a break with the EAEU and a move toward the EU.

“There will be problems with agricultural production, with the production of goods and services, the Russian market will close, there will be no money transfers from Russia, no Russian tourists. There will be serious problems, without a doubt. Can it be called a complete catastrophe? It would be a very significant deterioration of the economic situation, and consequently of the social situation as well. The EU is not currently in a position, financially or otherwise, to flood neighboring regions with money the way it did in the 1990s and early 2000s. That is no longer the case. So Armenia should hardly expect a ‘golden shower’ from Europe. The golden rain will not fall, but promises will be made. And then people will watch the news on television, read the corresponding newspapers, all dissent will be banned, and the information citizens receive will be tightly controlled. And they will live in that information world. That information world will paint for them a happy road to a bright future. They will probably believe it,” the expert concluded.