Beniamin Matevosyan: Armenia’s economy faces collapse, Pashinyan is lying just as he did during the 44-day war

(The RA authorities are driving relations with Russia into a dead end)

The political handwriting of Armenia’s current administration has taken its final shape as a strategy of total disinformation directed at its own population, in which critical incompetence and an unwillingness to take responsibility for the consequences of its decisions lie concealed behind the outward facade of “European aspirations.” The situation surrounding the notification of a possible revision of Russian gas prices has become yet another marker of this destructive course.

On the eve, when reports emerged in the information space that official Yerevan had received a letter from Moscow warning of a change in pricing policy, the Armenian authorities rushed to issue a categorical denial. The morning statements by Armenian officials rested on the claim that no such document existed and that the news was merely an attempt at destabilization. By midday, however, this house of cards had collapsed under the weight of official confirmation from Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, and Maria Zakharova, spokeswoman for the Russian MFA. The direct acknowledgment by the Kremlin and Smolenskaya Square that the letter had been sent cast Pashinyan’s team not merely in an unfavorable light, but in the role of outright liars caught red-handed before the entire international community.

This incident reproduces, with unsettling precision, the psychological and propaganda matrix of the 44-day war period. Back then, Armenian society was fed daily victory bulletins by Artsrun Hovhannisyan who, serving as the talking head of Pashinyan’s propaganda machine, kept insisting until the very last moment on frontline successes, tactical retreats, and imminent victory. While Hovhannisyan was drawing maps of imaginary counteroffensives, the real front was collapsing and thousands of young men were dying amid a deficit of leadership and resources. Today, the entire apparatus of Armenia’s state governance has stepped into Hovhannisyan’s role; only now, military dispatches have been replaced by economic indicators and energy security.

Lying has become the sole instrument of holding on to power. By concealing the scale of the problems in relations with its key economic partner, Pashinyan’s government is attempting to delay the moment when citizens realize that the country stands on the brink of an energy and, consequently, industrial collapse. For Armenia, the gas question is not merely a commercial dispute, it is a question of survival for what remains of the country’s sovereignty and industrial potential. For decades, Moscow subsidized the Armenian economy through low energy prices, which allowed Yerevan to maintain social stability and the competitiveness of its businesses. However, in a climate where the RA authorities are ostentatiously dismantling allied ties and attempting to flirt with outside players at the expense of regional security interests, Russia’s pragmatic response is a natural and logical one.

Pashinyan’s attempt to conceal the receipt of the letter is not merely a clumsy piece of manipulation, it is evidence of a deep fear of reality. The authorities understand that any revision of tariffs will trigger a chain reaction: rising electricity prices, inflation, business closures, and a sharp decline in living standards. Rather than entering into constructive dialogue and attempting to minimize the damage, Yerevan is choosing the ostrich approach, hoping that if the problem is ignored in the media space, it will disappear on its own.

This kind of information policy is driving Armenian-Russian relations into a dead end from which there is no way out without heavy losses for the Armenian side. Public denials of obvious facts, which are subsequently confirmed by partners, definitively destroy trust at the interstate level. If Pashinyan is willing to lie even over minor matters of formal correspondence, then any strategic agreements with his cabinet become meaningless for Moscow. We are witnessing a dangerous recurrence of the autumn of 2020: the authorities are deliberately misleading the public in order to evade responsibility for their failures on the international stage. Back then, that lie ended in national tragedy and the loss of territory; today, it threatens to end in the loss of economic independence and the complete degradation of the social sphere. Propaganda may temporarily suppress discontent, but it cannot heat homes in winter or keep factories running when gas ceases to be a cheap instrument of political support.

Think about that…