Compromise in the Middle East is by definition impossible – Semyon Bagdasarov

Speaking with Alpha News, Semyon Bagdasarov, Director of the Center for the Study of the Middle East and Central Asia, commented on the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, the US interest in a trade route through Armenia and Azerbaijan bypassing Russia and China, as well as Turkey’s interest in the South Caucasus region.

According to the expert, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu decided to go all in on the principle, “I will start a war, and you (the United States) have no other choice but to support me.”

“In the coming days, we can expect two options: either a big all-out war or some kind of Iranian strike on Israel and a Hezbollah strike on Iran. The fact is that Netanyahu, having visited the United States and seen what is happening there, understands perfectly well that, until the election, the Democrats will not give him the opportunity to start a full-scale war and therefore decided to act all-in.

The fact is that Israel cannot start a big war on its own; it is very dependent on the supply of weapons, spare parts, and ammunition from the United States. Suffice it to say that during the fighting in the Gaza Strip, the United States supplied Israel with a huge amount of ammunition. So, he decided to go all-in on the principle that ‘I will start a war, and you will have no other choice but to support me anyway.’

I don’t think Iran will strike the same blow now as last time. Back then, it tried to hit the airbase, show that it was able to reach Israel, and so on. This time, Iran will have to strike a more significant blow at some very serious, possibly critical Israeli facilities. Hezbollah can do the same,” Bagdasarov said.

According to the political scientist, we must be ready for a big war in the Middle East.

“The situation in the Middle East will get out of control. If we look at the situation in the Middle East globally, we must say that compromise is by definition impossible there. A peace treaty with the cession of some territories is impossible. Each side sets a radical task. The anti-Israeli forces are the destruction of the state of Israel, and Israel is the destruction of those who oppose it.

Therefore, it is only a matter of time before such a global conflict can arise. There may even be a truce, but it will be temporary. What happened on October 7 and after was not a major battle, it was a rehearsal for a great war. So, we must be ready for it,” Bagdasarov said.

Speaking about the latest statement by US Assistant Secretary of State O’Brien, who expressed interest in a transport route through Armenia and Azerbaijan, bypassing Russia and China, the expert noted that the West’s task is to separate the South Caucasus from Russia.

“Everything is coming to the finish line. Why did they surrender Nagorno-Karabakh? If Nagorno-Karabakh had not been surrendered, there would have been no issue with the corridor, since it is impossible according to geographical concepts.

Secondly, the time has come for more decisive action in the context of the events in Ukraine. The task is to separate the South Caucasus from Russia and not only it but also the entire Central Asian region, along with Kazakhstan, which possess enormous resources of oil, gas, and other minerals. If the task is fulfilled, it will be a huge gain for Russia’s Western opponents. This is why Karabakh was surrendered,” Bagdasarov said.

Speaking about the talks between Armenia and Turkey on the opening of borders, the political scientist noted that Turkey and Azerbaijan are interested in the destruction of the Armenian state, on the territory of which, according to their plans, “Western Azerbaijan” should arise.