Iran is entering negotiations from a position of strength and seeking to dictate its terms: Evdokia Dobreva

Evdokia Dobreva, research fellow at the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at IMEMO RAS, commented to Alpha News on the negotiations between Iran and the United States.

“A ceasefire regime has now been formally declared. Nevertheless, the US has decided to impose a naval blockade on Iranian vessels, one that is not working very well, but yesterday, for example, they fired on and detained an Iranian tanker. From the standpoint of international law, an attack on a foreign vessel is considered a casus belli, meaning effectively a declaration of war. That is why Tehran views this naval blockade episode as a violation of the ceasefire regime. Accordingly, they have no desire to participate in negotiations in such a toxic and aggressive atmosphere. At the same time, they currently hold strong negotiating positions overall, as they demonstrated during the war that their missile program is operational and can reach Israel. In general, they are entering negotiations from a position of strength and seeking to dictate their terms,” Dobreva said.

In the expert’s view, the main bargaining chip in the current US-Iran negotiations is the question of the Strait of Hormuz.

“The Iranian negotiating team, as far as I know, is already in Islamabad, and there is a general chance that the talks will take place. But the question now is what outcome they can lead to, because the demands Washington is putting forward are not practically achievable. These are maximalist demands, unenforceable from the perspective of a state that seeks to preserve its sovereignty and independence. We are talking about demands concerning the missile program, the cessation of support for allied organizations, and so on, all of which Iran finds unacceptable. So I think the main subject of bargaining in the negotiations right now may be tied specifically to the Strait of Hormuz issue, which is in turn linked to demands for reparations to Tehran. The war caused significant material damage to both civilian and military infrastructure. I have seen an estimate putting that damage at around 270 billion dollars. Accordingly, they are demanding compensation and reparations from the aggressor states. On the other hand, if that does not happen, they have a Plan B, which involves introducing paid transit through the Strait of Hormuz. So most likely, one of these options will be discussed and implemented, as this kind of financial gap in the budget needs to be filled one way or another,” Dobreva concluded.