Beniamin Matevosyan: Is Putin refusing to work with Pashinyan any further?

(What is really happening in the relations between Yerevan and Moscow)

Armenia’s information space is oversaturated with manipulative optimism. Supporters of the current government, ministers and deputies from the Civil Contract faction, are actively implanting a reassuring narrative into the public consciousness: that “everything will be starting June 8.” Flowers, Jermuk water, strawberries, other vegetables and Armenian fruits will once again flood the Russian market after June 7. We are being led to believe that the current unprecedented cooling of relations with Russia is merely temporary turbulence caused by the pre-election period, and that after the formal confirmation of Pashinyan’s mandate, Moscow will “go nowhere” and continue to subsidize the Armenian economy. This, however, is a dangerous delusion.

The truth is that June 8 will become a point of no return if Civil Contract and Pashinyan personally retain their political monopoly. Through its actions and, more importantly, through direct statements by its senior officials, Moscow is making it unmistakably clear: Vladimir Putin no longer intends to work with the current Prime Minister of Armenia under any circumstances.
Pashinyan is masterfully generating information noise in an attempt to distract voters from the fundamental threat to the very existence of the republic.

High-profile criminal cases, ostentatious property seizures (or promises thereof), artificially inflated scandals, all of this is merely a smoke screen. Behind it lies a geopolitical pivot toward a “Turkish world,” undertaken for the sake of Pashinyan’s personal political survival. This maneuver carries the risk of a full-scale economic and military collapse. And Moscow has stopped concealing its attitude toward this process. The statements of Dmitry Medvedev, Vyacheslav Volodin, and even Dmitry Peskov are not merely “ritualistic displeasure:” they are the official burning of bridges.

Putin’s team is openly marking Pashinyan as a figure with whom dialogue has been concluded permanently. Dmitry Medvedev spoke with maximum severity, casting aside diplomatic protocol: “A certain Nikol Pashinyan has set a course toward a break with Russia, this must be plainly acknowledged. He seems to find it advantageous to earn himself an inflated reputation in the West, at the risk of ties with our country.” These words are a direct diagnosis. The Kremlin no longer sees Pashinyan’s Yerevan as a predictable partner, so long as it is led by a man whom Medvedev dismissively called a “temporary figure.” Furthermore, a direct parallel has been drawn with the Ukrainian scenario. Pashinyan has been accused of “actively pushing his homeland down the sorrowful path of Banderite Ukraine.” These are not mere words, they are a verdict. The experience of Volodymyr Zelensky and Mikheil Saakashvili shows that once Moscow declares a country’s leader persona non grata, that decision is not subject to revision.

The authorities are trying to lull the people into complacency with assurances that the economic benefits of the EAEU will be preserved. But Moscow is already putting the question bluntly: one cannot enjoy the privileges of the union while simultaneously flirting with its enemies. As Peskov noted, “such an arrangement is impossible for participants in other integration frameworks.” The hint is more than transparent: the gas price, which is currently a lifeline for the Armenian economy, will instantly become market rate the moment Yerevan officially crosses the threshold of European structures. Medvedev confirmed this, emphasizing: “This will not be without consequences for him and his people, including, of course, the economic parameters of cooperation.” We are standing on the threshold of a return to the “dark and cold years,” when agriculture will finally die and the country will sink into a profound economic crisis.

The choice facing Armenia is stark and simple. Either the citizens of Armenia exercise their constitutional right to form a government and Civil Contract is stripped of its political monopoly, or Armenia gains a new and extremely dangerous enemy in the form of Russia, a nuclear superpower.

Pashinyan is trying to convince everyone that he is “slipping between the raindrops,” but in reality he is already soaked to the bone in the cold rain of geopolitical isolation. The Kremlin has made it clear: “Russia’s strategic partner is the people of Armenia, not any Armenian official.” This is a direct appeal to the people to recognize their responsibility for their own future. If Pashinyan remains in power on June 7, then June 8 will mark the beginning of the end of the Armenia we know. Moscow will no longer “understand and forgive.” For dialogue to develop, Armenia needs constructive leadership not a “temporary figure” who is gathering the enemies of his ally in Yerevan. The choice of path is ours, and the price of that choice is the very survival of the state.

Think about it…