The scenario of leaving the EAEU without a realistic alternative entails serious losses

In addition to the “EAEU or EU” question, which has become the topic of the agenda, the top question is how realistic EU membership is today. In other words, we have no real alternative to the EAEU.

The economic losses that will follow after the withdrawal from the EAEU are very noticeable and measurable. One of the most discussed indicators is the foreign trade turnover.

Suffice it to recall that our trade with the EAEU accounts for 42.2% of our gross trade with the world, while with the EU it is 7.5% of the total. This pattern has especially developed lately, which has further increased the dependence on one direction. However, the EAEU’s economic role does not begin and end with mutual trade alone.

We have a rather large energy dependence on Russia. Almost 100% of imported wheat and flour is imported from Russia, and Russia is the leader in almost all strategically important goods. At the same time, all this is sold to Armenia at preferential prices, taking into account the bilateral Armenian-Russian and EAEU customs rules.

Gas is sold to Armenia at a price of $165 per 1,000 cubic meters, a stable price for many years and a special guarantee of stability both in the economy and in the social sphere. These assessments do not imply that we should exclude deepening or development of cooperation in European or other directions; on the contrary, we are in dire need of diversification. However, it should not be done by abruptly abandoning existing opportunities without having a clear alternative.