Even a lengthy US-Iran ceasefire will not resolve the root causes of the conflict: Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya

Middle East scholar Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya commented to Alpha News on the prospects of a peace agreement between the US and Iran.

“This is in any case a temporary solution. Even if the ceasefire leads to a temporary respite lasting longer than what is specified in the document, it will be roughly like the aftermath of the twelve-day war that took place last year, because the root causes of the conflict have not been resolved. Each side is pursuing its own goals, and neither is likely to be ready to make compromises. Even if Iran and the US manage to agree on a ceasefire, there is no guarantee that Israel will observe it. There is an example unfolding right now: Lebanon. There, a ceasefire does not prevent Israel from continuing to bomb certain districts of Beirut and from advancing through the territory of the country’s southern regions,” the scholar noted.

In the expert’s view, the balance of power in the Middle East has shifted noticeably, with even Saudi Arabia having banned the use of its airspace.

“On top of that, the balance of power in the region has shifted considerably. Since the start of this phase of the conflict, the United Arab Emirates has firmly taken a pro-American, one might even say pro-Israeli, position, while Saudi Arabia banned the use of its airspace and territory for the latest operation announced by Donald Trump,” Ostanin-Golovnya said.