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Armenia should have only waited 7-8 years

February 05 2025, 13:24

After the ethnic cleansing in Artsakh in 2023, Gevorg Papoyan, who now serves as the Minister of Economy, stated that if we want to know the truth, we should know that “the real independence day of Armenia is not September 21, but September 19.” That is, the day when another war against Artsakh began, as a result of which the Armenian people lost part of their historical homeland, and the Republic of Armenia lost the most important part of its strategic depth and military potential.

It was clear from the beginning that Papoyan represented not only his own opinion but also the collective opinion of the Civil Contract party. This was confirmed the day before when Nikol Pashinyan stated at a meeting with members of the Armenian community in the United States that “having gone through the defeat in the 44-day war, we gained the opportunity to have an independent and sovereign state.”

Needless to say, this is not true. And this is not a value judgment; this is a statement of fact. And to understand why this is a lie, we need to “deviate from the main topic of the conversation” a little. The same Pashinyan and members of his team like to repeat that “the world is changing,” that “we are witnessing a change in the world order.” But what is this “new world order”?
This is what US President Donald Trump is talking about when he says he wants a level playing field or when Dmitry Peskov, the Press Secretary of the Russian President, says that the world is moving towards multipolarity, and this fact cannot be ignored. It becomes clear that a new “Westphalian system” or “New Yalta” may await us. That is, the establishment of new rules of the global game. Obviously, the United States, China, India, and Russia have already staked out a place at the table of the new Yalta.

Russia needed the war in Ukraine to get this place at the negotiating table. Today, the war is developing in such a way that even those Armenian political scientists and the media who said last year that “Russia has already lost” now recognize that Russia does not even want to stop the war, as it is steadily advancing, and the Russian army is conquering more and more new frontiers (the Dnepropetrovsk region is already very close).

It is clear that under such conditions, the “new Yalta” will be beneficial not only to Moscow but also to its allies. And it is in this context that it should be unequivocally stated that if Armenia had not surrendered in 2018, it would have been among the most privileged allies of Russia. Think for yourself: Armenia would have had a military base of a country that won the war against the entire NATO bloc and whose experience and military technologies could be adopted. Armenia would have had cheap energy resources. If the North-South Transport Corridor were functioning, Armenia would have become an important part of the transport artery needed by Iran as well as China and Russia, two countries from the new Yalta.

If we had waited for another 7-8 years and not surrendered Artsakh, and had been able to ensure peace in the South Caucasus during the war, which, in turn, would not have allowed Azerbaijan to blackmail Russia, as it is doing now, while reselling Russian gas, Armenia’s future would have been different. And certainly this future would not have been in the Turkic world, to where Pashinyan is forcibly dragging Armenia.

Think about it…