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Overchuk does not fully disclose the details of Pashinyan’s geopolitical choice either

January 31 2025, 12:52

One of Armenia’s main problems at the present stage of its development is the underestimation of what is happening to it. Moreover, it is underestimated both by political actors inside Armenia and by external “players”. Do you want an example?

Yesterday, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk spoke very harshly about the impossibility of combining Armenia’s membership in the EU and the EAEU. “Those in Armenia who claim that it is possible to find some solutions, to put it mildly, mislead the Armenian people. The solution here is very obvious. Zeroing import customs rates with the EU will automatically mean a return to customs and customs tariffs with the EAEU. The Armenian side clearly knows about the consequences. No one should have any illusions,” Overchuk said.

Overchuk’s speech seems to be structured as succinctly and logically as possible. Moreover, it can be said that with his statement, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister is responding to the statements by Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, who, while on a visit to Moscow, noted that if such a question arises (incompatibility of simultaneous membership in the EU and the EAEU), then it will be necessary to understand what to do.

Moreover, the Armenian foreign minister said that it is “experts and theorists” that are talking about the impossibility of combining. I wonder if Overchuk is an expert or more of a theorist. However, this is where we come to the problem outlined above: Overchuk’s assessment is also incorrect. Or at least partially incorrect. The Armenian authorities are well aware not only of the incompatibility of the EU and the EAEU, but also that the substantive start of the European integration process (setting a date for a referendum, changes in the government structure with a special appointment who would deal with European integration, etc.) is equal to the start of withdrawal from the EAEU.

It was easy to see this on January 24, when the Armenian Parliament’s Commission on European Integration held discussions on a draft bill on the beginning of the accession process to the EU. The draft bill, which was eventually approved by the commission. The discussions during the discussion took place precisely in the context of the fact that Armenia should withdraw from the EAEU. Moreover, in the minds of the members of Pashinyan’s team, the initiators of the referendum, Armenia has already left the EAEU, which, in fact, was stated by the chair of the Parliamentary Commission on European Integration, Arman Yeghoyan, who literally said the following: “After leaving the EAEU, should our trade turnover with Russia become zero?”

The problem of Overchuk and other actors is that they either do not see or do not want to see the obvious: the ultimate goal of “European integration” is a deliberate rupture of relations with Russia. Do you remember the formula “we are not quitting the CSTO, but the CSTO quit Armenia”? The same logic applies to the EAEU—the Armenian authorities want to provoke a crisis in relations so that the EAEU initiates the exclusion of Yerevan from the Union, which, in turn, will make Armenia’s integration into the Turkic world the only option. It is no coincidence that the “Turkish landing force” in Armenia, led by Garo Paylan, has already stated that “Turkey could supply wheat to Armenia instead of Russia.”

Think about it…