Replacing the November 9 declaration: What was Pashinyan talking about in Sardarapat?

Just five years ago, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan honored the Armenian military after the July clashes with Azerbaijan and stated that it was thanks to the Armenian army that no one could impose their will on Armenia. Five years later, after the loss of Artsakh and the breaking of the backbone of the Armenian army, Pashinyan claims that today Armenia is more of a state than ever before—more sovereign and independent than ever.

Moreover, justifying his actions, Pashinyan claims that Historical Armenia is sending us an important message: “Do not repeat this story, do not follow this path.” In other words, he urges against resisting pressure from Turkey and Azerbaijan.

Speaking in Sardarapat on First Republic Day, Pashinyan said that Yerevan and Baku are engaged in bilateral consultations to determine the timing of a peace treaty and also noted that an active dialogue is underway with Turkey. Many may think that we are talking about signing the main peace treaty with Azerbaijan, as well as the potential opening of the border with Turkey. However, Baku has repeatedly stated that without amendments to the Armenian Constitution and without the dissolution of the OSCE Minsk Group, no peace treaty can be signed. So what is Pashinyan talking about then?

Many people forget that the November 9 document is still valid, as it was signed for five years. That document merely formalized the reality on the ground. Much has changed since November 9, 2020: Artsakh has been surrendered to Azerbaijan, there are practically no Armenians left, part of the Armenian territories has been occupied by Azerbaijani troops, Armenia has frozen and, in fact, terminated its membership in the CSTO, relations with Russia continue to deteriorate, some Russian border guards have been withdrawn from a number of locations in Armenia, and Armenia itself has adopted a law on membership in the EU, signaling its foreign policy priorities.

The new balance of power must be documented, and this new agreement may replace the November 9, 2020, document. This is the kind of agreement that Yerevan and Baku can sign—but now under Turkey’s patronage.

In his latest interview, Armenia’s second president, Robert Kocharyan, stated, “Even if the document [with Baku] is signed, it will not be about peace but about Pashinyan himself.” This “document on Pashinyan” may become an agreement that will replace the November 9 declaration. This will not be a peace treaty but rather a document on the intentions of Yerevan and Baku to achieve peace, and Ankara can act as a guarantor of all this—a mediator acceptable to both Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan.

The speech in Sardarapat once again showed that Pashinyan is in a hurry. His rush stems not only from changes within the Russian presidential administration or the internal political struggle in Armenia but also from the fact that a new geopolitical division of the world is close. This is a division that we have been talking about for more than two years—and which even The New York Times is discussing, noting that US President Donald Trump may be preparing a large-scale deal with Russia and China on spheres of influence. It is obvious that Armenia will not enter the sphere of influence of either the United States or Turkey, and therefore Pashinyan is in a hurry to finalize everything before “the new Yalta.”

Think about it…