Under whose auspices did Yerevan and Baku unite against Moscow?

While on a visit to Yerevan, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Armenia and Russia had passed the stage of mutual distrust and resentment. But is this really the case? Have Yerevan and Moscow really returned to a mutually respectful dialogue? The answer to this question lies within real political and geopolitical developments.

From May 27 to 29, Moscow will host an international meeting of high-level security representatives, chaired by Secretary of the Russian Security Council Sergei Shoigu. More than 125 delegations from over 100 countries of the global South and East—as well as the CIS, CSTO, EAEU, SCO, and 14 international organizations—have confirmed their participation. Armenia is also participating in the event, but not at the level of the head of the Armenian Security Council, Armen Grigoryan, who deliberately avoids events held in Russia or under its auspices within various integration associations. Instead, Armenian Ambassador to Russia Gurgen Arsenyan will represent official Yerevan.

“The Secretary of the Armenian Security Council will not participate in the meeting in Moscow on May 28 due to participation in events dedicated to Republic Day,” the office of the National Security Council said, commenting on Grigoryan’s absence. Given the synchronization of Baku and Yerevan’s actions, it would not be surprising if Grigoryan, like Aliyev, also opened a poultry farm in Armenia on these days—just as Ilham Aliyev did during Moscow’s celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.

Deputy Secretary of the Russian Security Council Alexei Shevtsov, in turn, said that separate negotiations between representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan are not planned during the high-level meeting in Moscow.

“The program of the event is very packed, it does not involve additional narrow negotiation formats,” he explained. In fact, even without Shevtsov’s comments, it was clear that Yerevan and Baku would not hold talks in Russia. The reason here is not a “packed agenda”, but a political decision to exclude Russia from the Armenian-Azerbaijani negotiation process and to push it out of the South Caucasus region altogether.

This was precisely why Pashinyan handed over Artsakh to Azerbaijan in Prague. Moreover, it seems that this issue should have been closed back in 2020, but the personal intervention of Russian President Vladimir Putin and the deployment of Russian peacekeepers to the region postponed the verdict of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic. But after Prague, Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev continued to work in unison to actively push Russia out of the region.
There is no vacuum in geopolitics, and if this process reaches its logical conclusion, another geopolitical player—Turkey—will take Russia’s place. Today, Turkey has positioned itself as a dominant force, a reality acknowledged not only by Azerbaijan—which has been increasingly straining its ties with Russia (a Russian media outlet was blocked in Azerbaijan just last week)—but also by Nikol Pashinyan.

The Armenian authorities clearly demonstrate that not only negotiations in Moscow and on the Russian negotiating platform are unacceptable for Yerevan, but even extended contacts with Russian diplomats in Armenia are being minimized.

An example of this is Lavrov’s visit to Armenia. The Russian Foreign Minister was neither greeted at the airport by his Armenian counterpart nor escorted to Victory Park. Several other standard protocol events were also omitted. Moreover, the Yerevan Dialogue 2025 international diplomatic forum is taking place in the Armenian capital these days, and there are no guests from Russia among its participants. Yet, there is even a representative of Turkey—Nigar Goksel, a project director from the International Crisis Group.

Think about it…