Vigen Hakobyan| What will happen in 2025? | Artsakh, Armenia, New World Order
January 21 2025, 22:00
As part of the “What will happen in 2025? Artsakh, Armenia, New World Order”, Alpha News talked with political strategist Vigen Hakobyan.
According to him, Azerbaijan is not interested in signing a peace agreement with Armenia because this will make Baku fulfill its obligations. According to him, it is Nikol Pashinyan who needs this document to maintain power.
“This agreement is a paper for the Armenian authorities, which they can wave during the upcoming elections and show the people that they have fulfilled what they promised in 2021, and if there is no peace, then it is not their fault, the world is to blame, there are no guarantors of peace. This agreement will set obligations for Azerbaijan, they can then go against it, and Baku is not interested in having at least some obligations; this will be a straitjacket for it. Azerbaijan already gets what it wants without this agreement. The proof of that is what happened in Tavush when the army retreated from its positions in the spring of 2024 and 4 villages came under Azerbaijan’s control,” Vigen Hakobyan said.
According to the political strategist, the main bone of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan is the road passing through Syunik, which Baku and Ankara want to use as a corridor, that is, without any control from Armenia. Vigen Hakobyan believes that the road will pass through Armenia in any case.
“There is a November 9, 2020 document, paragraph 9 of which clearly describes how this road should operate, and it is described differently from what Pashinyan imagines. In terms of international law, we are talking about a sovereign, not a transit route, but in our region it implies having a corridor. Everywhere these roads are called corridors, but we associate the term ‘corridor’ with the Lachin corridor, in terms of who will control it. I think that when this document was signed in 2020, Baku and Ankara considered the issue of the corridor, using the phrase ‘Zangezur corridor,’ which meant that Armenia should not control it. I believe Russians were able to grab a bigger piece of the pie, telling Yerevan and Baku that formally the road will be Armenian but will be controlled by Russia, and Azerbaijan and Turkey will be able to use the road freely under Russia’s control. Of course, Nikol Pashinyan did everything, including surrendering Artsakh, so as not to give up this road to anyone, but he failed. The Russians will proceed so that the provision concerning this road, according to the November 9 agreement, will be fulfilled. This issue remains open, and much will depend on the position of the administration of the new US President Trump,” the political strategist emphasized.
Vigen Hakobyan is convinced that Pashinyan is leading Armenia to Turkey but is trying to create the impression that he is heading West.
“The shift to the West is an illusion; it’s easily accepted by society. People perceive the West as a progressive pole against Russians. But in fact, he is heading to Turkey, it was revealed when in 2024 Pashinyan met with Erdogan in New York, where he was handed a book by Erdogan and told to take a picture with this so that everyone can see whose person he is and whose instructions he should follow from now on. As for leaving the CSTO, Pashinyan was given a clear message from Russia that leaving this organization also means leaving the EAEU. In other words, it is impossible to be at the military-political pole opposite to Moscow, but to develop at the expense of Russia. In Pashinyan’s opinion, there are alternatives in military and political terms, and he, for example, buys weapons from India; however, economically, Armenia’s dependence on Russia is enormous. So far, Pashinyan sees no alternative to this, so he is not doing anything to leave the CSTO, because it would mean the verge of collapse,” Vigen Hakobyan said.