Will Putin punish Aliyev?

It has long been a political axiom that, having lost Armenia, Russia loses Azerbaijan as well. Despite the presence of influential figures in Russia—such as philosopher Aleksandr Dugin—who argue otherwise, recent events have proved that Baku, having “resolved the Artsakh issue,” is making a geopolitical pivot: closer cooperation with NATO, comprehensive military integration with Ankara, as well as financial, economic, and military support for Ukraine.
Russia could have prevented this, but the geopolitical reality stands as it is. This, in turn, means that relations between Moscow and Baku will continue to deteriorate in the medium term.

Moreover, it is deteriorating in a number of areas, which may affect both interstate relations and the situation of Azerbaijani business in Russia.

The Kremlin will respond to Ilham Aliyev for his attacks against Russia for serving the British agenda in the region. Recently, the FSB stated that London is the main source of global crises and wars.

It is no coincidence that Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky has once again labeled Artsakh a disputed territory and compared the war in Artsakh with the war in Ukraine. “After some time, Ukraine, together with NATO, with its allies, will join NATO, try to win it back, and that will be the end of the planet, that will be a nuclear war,” Medinsky said.

Baku did just that: having become part of NATO through Turkey, it resumed the war with its allies. It is important that the Russian presidential aide stated that Azerbaijan and Ukraine operate according to the same pattern. Although Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova tried to smooth things over the next day after Medinsky’s statements—stating that Moscow recognizes Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan—RIA Novosti later cited a source who clarified that while Russia does not dispute Azerbaijan’s sovereignty, it expects Baku to recognize Crimea and Russia’s new regions.

Add to this Maria Zakharova’s recent announcement of humanitarian aid for the people of Artsakh, and it becomes clear that the conflict between Baku and Moscow is only intensifying.
The paradox of the situation lies in the fact that Baku’s trump card in the confrontation with Moscow today is Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. Azerbaijan can use Armenia as a tool to harm Russia, for example, by seeking the withdrawal of the 102nd base or border guards.

In such circumstances, to avoid becoming a victim of the confrontation between Azerbaijan (Turkey) and Russia, Armenia should approach this period with a new political leader—someone who does not have a trail of defeat and does not pursue policy in the interests of Baku.

Think about it…