Is Pashinyan expecting an internal political and geopolitical fiasco in Gyumri?

Snap elections to the City Council are expected in Gyumri on March 30. The entire election campaign has confirmed that this is both a significant domestic political event and an equally important geopolitical process.

This is exactly what the authorities are unhappy about. They are also displeased that the elections are competitive and Gyumri residents “have someone to choose from.” This is the reason for the processes unfolding in the Shirak region in the morning. Earlier, it became known that law enforcement agencies had conducted inspections at the office of the opposition Mother Armenia Alliance in Gyumri.

Emma Grigoryan, a representative of the bloc, was taken from Gyumri to the Anti-Corruption Committee, where proceedings were initiated on several cases of electoral bribes in connection with the upcoming elections. After that, it was reported that the father and son of the opposition candidate for mayor of Gyumri, Martun Grigoryan, were detained.

The government’s actions are predictable: they try to intimidate one of the competitors, with whom the government has no chance of reaching behind-the-scenes agreements, while artificially boosting the rating of another, a formal competitor. The authorities hope that Gyumri residents will vote for this candidate out of frustration with the repression of the opposition, thereby expressing dissatisfaction with Nikol Pashinyan’s policies.

One of the potential scenarios of the central government may be as follows: taking into account the possible post-election situation, by exerting pressure on political forces, to ensure that “members of the City Council with reduced social responsibility” are found within one faction or another before March 30. This would allow them to replicate the “Yerevan trick,” where two formal coalition forces—the Civil Contract and the Hanrapetutyun Party—are supplemented by votes from other factions to ensure a quorum at meetings and carry out any controversial decisions.

If the opposition succeeds in winning and maintaining its victory, it could become a foundation for building a full-fledged political process. Of course, the elections also carry a geopolitical connotation: if the opposition wins, it will be a significant and institutional response to the question of whether the Armenian people agree with the policies of Pashinyan and his team.

Of course, after the elections, Pashinyan could initiate criminal proceedings against any of the opposition candidates and imprison them, but the very fact of the Gyumri protest vote would remain crucial here.

They have a real chance to complete what began in 2018 in their own city. If the opposition loses and fails to retain its votes, then everything that former member of the Civil Contract faction Hovik Aghazaryan said in the National Assembly—regarding the “return of thousands of Azerbaijanis to Armenia” and the surrender of Tigranashen to the enemy—may very soon become a reality.

Think about it…