What will be the fate of Armenia after the Istanbul talks?

To understand what Ukraine can expect after potential negotiations in Istanbul regarding the end of the Ukrainian war, you should read three news and statements:

1. “The United States opposes Zelensky’s invitation to the NATO summit in The Hague, which will be held in June,” the Italian news agency ANSA reported.

2. “France has already given Ukraine everything it could and cannot increase supplies,” French President Emmanuel Macron said.

3. “The text agreed upon in Istanbul in 2022 may become an option for resolving the conflict,” Russian Foreign Ministry Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik said ahead of the next potential talks in Istanbul.

The first talks in Istanbul assumed the neutral status of Ukraine (no NATO membership), no deployment of foreign troops and weapons on the territory of Ukraine, as well as a ban on conducting exercises; denazification (the prohibition of Nazi propaganda); the status of the Russian language as the second state language; and disarmament of Ukraine (a sharp restriction on the size of its army and military equipment). Add to this the incorporation of four new regions and Crimea into Russia, and you can already understand what awaits Ukraine in Istanbul.

At the same time, we see that not only the United States is pushing Ukraine to surrender, but also France, which intended to replace the United States. Ukraine is virtually abandoned by everyone.

In this situation, there is another very important geopolitical nuance: negotiations will be held again in Istanbul, which once again underlines the importance of Turkey for both the United States and Russia. Turkey is not just a venue for negotiations but also a subject of a more global negotiation process. It can replace the United States as a factor ensuring the security of the EU as Washington retreats from its role in Europe.

There has been talk about this for months. Turkey is the second army of NATO, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has already stated that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoys exceptional respect among his allies: “He is an outstanding leader within NATO.” The head of the alliance noted that the Turkish military-industrial complex is of strategic importance for the entire alliance. He stressed that even the production of ammunition in the United States is not complete without close cooperation with Turkish companies.

If the guess is correct, Turkey has already received a bonus on its way to becoming a guarantor of EU security (the problem with the Kurds has been partially solved), but what else can it get from the United States and Russia?

As Washington and Moscow divide Eurasia, which sphere of influence will Armenia fall under? These are questions that Armenia’s future depends on answering. The interests of Russia and Armenia are based on pushing the Turkish factor out of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, as well as the reorientation of Turkish interests to Europe. From now on, Turkey may finally become a headache not for Moscow, but for European capitals, which will inevitably lead to changes in the South Caucasus.

The new geopolitical configuration in Eurasia will become clear in the coming days. In the context of the Armenian state, it is only evident that Nikol Pashinyan has no place in Armenia, which may be of interest to Moscow, not only as prime minister but even as an ordinary, marginal political figure.

Think about it…