Will Pashinyan contract COVID again before May 9?

As of May 6, the Armenian side has not yet given a clear answer on whether Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will participate in the celebrations marking the 80th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War. Perhaps this may best reflect the current state of relations between Yerevan and Moscow, but simply acknowledging this fact is insufficient—a more detailed analysis of the situation should be carried out.

Obviously, Pashinyan does not have a final decision regarding his participation in the Victory Day Parade. This is evidenced by media reports, his recent trips abroad—where he has laid flowers at memorials for victims of communism—and statements from high-ranking officials.

It is worth recalling that earlier, the Speaker of the National Assembly of Armenia, Alen Simonyan, said that “politics is trade”, and even that the alleged “northern neighbor” is waging a hybrid war against the republic. Moreover, in his opinion, the situation will escalate in 2026 (by the time of the National Assembly elections). To a clarifying question from the media, Simonyan replied that the funding allegedly comes from Russia. Moreover, he made these statements immediately after meeting with Russian Ambassador Sergey Kopyrkin, where upcoming visits by high-ranking Russian officials were discussed.

What Pashinyan is doing is as old as time. This method was also used by the previous government. If Pashinyan eventually visits Moscow, he will likely attempt to “sell” the trip to Russian leadership as a demonstration of Yerevan’s continued friendship with Moscow, arguing that not only were Western partners against his participation in the celebrations, but also anti-Russian sentiments are strong in his team. Despite this, he will find the strength and come to the parade.

If he chooses not to travel to Moscow, Pashinyan may present this decision to the West and Turkey as a firm rejection of Russian imperialism. He could once again cite COVID as the reason for declining the trip.

Whether Pashinyan visits Moscow or yields to pressure from the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the near future will show. Armenian-Russian relations will remain problematic regardless of his decision. Nothing will change this reality.

It is important to note that there were times when May 9 was a triple holiday for all of us: Victory Day in the Great Patriotic War, the Liberation of Shushi, and the founding of the Artsakh Defense Army. The debate over whether to visit Moscow might not have arisen had Artsakh remained Armenian. And we would have celebrated May 9 with another military parade—honoring the 80th anniversary of Victory, the 33rd anniversary of Shushi’s liberation, and the 33rd anniversary of the Artsakh Defense Army’s formation.

However, Pashinyan decided to surrender Artsakh in October 2022 in Prague, depriving the Armenian people of the triple May holiday, leaving them only a surrogate called “Citizen’s Day”.

Think about it…