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Does a new war await Armenia after Raisi’s strange death?

May 21 2024, 12:30

The helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, East Azerbaijan Governor Malek Rahmati, Tabriz Imam of Friday Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, and several other officials crashed in the mountainous terrain of Dizmar between the villages of Uzi and Pir Daoud in northwestern Iran.

This is an extraordinary event, to put it mildly, that can affect our entire region. Armenia already has a sad history of tragedies following the deaths and murders of Iranian senior officials. In January 2020, Lieutenant General and commander of the Quds special forces in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Qassem Suleimani was killed in a terrorist attack backed by the United States. Perhaps this is just a coincidence, but it was in January 2020 that Azerbaijan began mass purchases of UAVs for the future war with Armenia and Artsakh. Today we are dealing with the deaths of several high-ranking Iranian officials at once, including the head of state.

There are several questions in the current situation:
1. What does the Iranian Constitution provide for such cases?
2. Is the incident with Raisi worth considering as an “accident”, or is it a chain of global events?
3. Has the region become closer to war after the death of the Iranian leader?

Firstly, the Iranian Constitution stipulates a procedure in the event of the death of the head of state. According to Article 131, in the event of the death of the president, his first vice president, 70-year-old financier Mohammad Mokhber, will serve as interim president over the next two months.

According to the Constitution, the first vice president will take over the presidency with the approval of the country’s spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Within 50 days, a special council consisting of the Speaker of Parliament, the head of the judiciary, and the Vice President must organize a new presidential election.
Secondly, everyone must ask themselves the question of whether Raisi’s death was a tragic accident or premeditated murder—at least until the outcome of the investigation.

However, it is impossible not to notice a certain pattern in the recent developments. We are talking about the following events:
* The Iranian President’s helicopter crash;
* The assassination attempt on Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico;
* Death threat against Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic;
* Reports on the possible coup in Turkey;
* The assassination attempt on the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman.

All these events, in any case, escalate the political situation in the world. The notorious change in the world order has such manifestations as well. In any case, a situation emerged in which being the head of state becomes physically dangerous if you do not “work with those who are able to create such problems.”

Touching upon the third point, it should be noted that in any case, in the next 50 to 70 days (that is, a little more than 2 months), the situation in our region will be hazardous. Raisi was a consistent opponent of “changing geopolitical borders in the South Caucasus.” Now he’s gone, and the Iranian political system will be overcoming the crisis, which Baku and Ankara may perceive as a “historical window of opportunity” for a complete geopolitical transformation of the region at the expense of Armenia.

For Israel, these two months are also a “historical window of opportunity” to complete what it started in the Gaza Strip—with less resistance.
However, it is clear that we are most interested in our own fate, and the saddest thing is that during this period of historical transformations, Armenia is ruled by a random person from the street.
Think about it…